Thats exactly why i still believe we're in a bear mkt rally. i find it impossible to believe we can heal and move forward when we've taken almost no capacity out of the system from home builders or retailers.there's 30% too much capacity and many were slated to go bankrupt this year but the stock mkt rally saved them for now. explain how you can have a total collapse in housing and no top 10 builder goes under?
I wonder how many home builders just build with no one investing? In my area, the builders take a 30% downpayment to begin which should cover most cost of development. With no business, they don't really lose anything, all contract based, little overhead. I am not sure how a builder could even go out of business operating like that. In a downturn, they might not do too much business, but they don't lose their business. Labor might lose there home with lack of income, but the businesses shouldn't go anywhere. Unless they built out whole neighborhood without collateral.
Some of them do make the transition from "building out projects on spec" to "building only under contract"... at least while it's perceived that business is slow.
I said top 10 builder, len,nvr,tol,bzh,dhi,hov etc. none have gone under. same with retailers or restraunts. very very few have gone under.there has to be a reduction in co's as the new normal is much less consumption
The government is thinking/hoping, "the contraction is near its end".... but in reality, this is only "wave 1" on the downside.