What is not practical is expecting to get positioned before a move happens - at least not at a high rate.
Yes, I understand that... Using the absolute highs of the market, opened me up for this type of comment. Should not have done that. At this point it's just becoming a debate about what is considered "before a move happens" and that comes down to, too many individual things like style, risk management, technical analysis and etc. So, not really a need to debate this I understand However, hopefully you can see where I am coming from though, as there has to be a balance. If you're not positioned before the move happens and the move happens, you've potentially missed the move. From my perspective RTY Weekly chart had probability that the high had been put in for a while and we were heading lower as we put in a pattern and candle closed below a distribution area on 11/26/2021. NQ Daily Closed below its structure and created a likely distribution zone above on 01/06/2022. So, for me personally that is when I had a slightly bearish bias and when we candle closed back below 15605 again that increased to full bearish. In closing to me with RTY weekly putting in that pattern and than NQ Daily, that's the all the metrics I needed to personally see to be bearish. In other words these are huge charts, if the intentions of larger players were to move us higher, it would not make logical sense for these patterns to not only show up, but be respected and to candle close back below them. It's been a 1200* point drop on NQ since we candle closed back below 15605. I didn't trade it as well as I would have liked, but majority of my trades have been short since then. Sorry for the long post, but you just posted one sentence from your point of view, without letting me know you understand the point I am making. So, just wanted to clarify exactly what I am saying.
Most of you are better traders than I am but I have seen this before and its best to sit back and let this play out. You're sounding like a one-way investor. If you are truly worried, go buy some puts like an over-paid portfolio manager. Then you can sleep well at night
Just doing a little homework here. A picture says 1000 words. The nasdaq 100 is a marketcap weighted index, ie the bigger the company the greater influence it has on the index. Of course ya'll knew that already. In the picture below I have arranged the index by marketcap. The 1st column is the % change from the 52 week high, the second is the 6 month % change. It's pretty obvious TSLA is holding a lot of cards at this point. Like it or not, Elon is now in control of the Nasdaq near term. What if he wants to tank the market near term so (his cabal) can buy in cheap for the ride back up? Perhaps a very real possibility? The potential is certainly there because analysts are all forecasting great things for TSLA this Q. The bar has been set quite high. Despite what I wrote yesterday, I think any rally between now and the close Wednesday close should be sold. It might get a slight pop on a decent report from IBM (Monday PM) or MSFT (Tuesday PM) but Wednesday night (after TSLA) and Thursday will be very colorful to say the least. I wouldn't anticipate any surprises out of the Fed Wednesday, just a re-hashing of the last time with no verbiage that could alter what's already priced in regarding that variable. We also have the GDP #'s Thursday AM, and they might come in soft. Estimate is for 5.4% annualized. That may be a tad optimistic, but as these things go I doubt they'll miss the mark. No need to create any added anxiety this week right? They'll just adjust them down next time like they always do. Thursday PM will be Apple, softer sales are priced in, all eyes will be on what they say about their supply chain. So that's the week ahead. It's Elon's world, we're just along for the ride. One thing's for sure, the VIX will remain high. A good time to write options. So they say. -vz
The last time I thought that, Wed Jan 5th happened with the minutes of the meeting that everyone freaked out about, and it totally f-ed the markets. And we have been drawing down ever since. It has been snowballing, like a melting snowman on a mountain. I suspect Wed Jan 26 will have the same stupid surprises.
"You thought that"? Lol. @Overnight, your track record here isn't that great buddy. I had to specifically add that sentence because I knew you'd be compelled to chime in with something about the fed, just like you've done for every fed meeting for the last 5 years. The market didn't freak out Jan 5th, the q's had a 10 point range that day, and even at that, the downtrend had been in place since late December. I warned you about this in mid December and you went on and on about how I was wrong and "the bulls" as you call them were in control. Now, who was right? ----->Ignore the noise, and there will inevitably be some around MSFT and the fed minutes because of the cnbc/bloomberg hype, but if the Nasdaq really tanks, it will be because of a certain earnings report and the reaction it inspires. "We have assumed control---- we have assumed control". -2112