The only real growth for the US is exporting to emerging markets, and China is the symbol of emerging markets. When the Chinese equity bubble finally pops, that will be the catalyst for the American and European markets to start a bear market. Subprime and credit problems are a symptom of past excesses, but until you kill the driver of growth during these past 5 years of the bull, which is China, you will have believers and the market will trade stubbornly at inflated levels. Look at daytraders still flocking to the Chinese names for no reason other than they are Chinese. Right now, the odds are stacked against equity bulls, which for 5 years, is a rare change from the bulls in charge status quo. I think the bear will last for a while and grind down bulls one by one.
There is no way that Chinese equities can continue at the current pace. If they do the index would be around 18000 in a year .
The prices should triple from the current levels before calling a top. And this is my low-end estimate.
Until it triples...hahahahaha. The smart locals have/are stepping out of Chinese longs. Feel free to disagree with your own capital though.
Just curious, how's the average winner ratio of your weekly bearish calls? I remember you frantically begged longs to get out before we "crash much further" at the exact low of the spooz @ 1370.