no way to know if or when.you just have to look at the odds. we are in one of the longest streaks ever without any kind of correction. what are the odds it can continue without a correction? i dont know.
Classic bull trap scenario, the johnny come lately rally that is underway is alot about top managers that were sitting on cash being forced into the market by pissed off clients. show me another rally of this magnitude in this short duration in the face of WEAK underlying fundamentals and a general consensus that we are either in a larger slowdown or even a slight recession. last i checked that was a bearish situation. the rally is about the cash being forced to work IMSWO. enter newtons law.
Interestingly on a US dollar adjusted basis the S & P 500 is only up about 12% total from trough to peak which is only about a 3% return compounded in stable currency!!!
Some bull market! I think my bank CD's have more volatility than this bullshit. I'm just going along for the ride unlike some of the fools who believe all the hype and get all excited.
First of all relative performance is all that matters. If SPX goes down 10%, your peers return -10%, and you return -10%, then no one cares. But if you return worse like -15% then you'll get a lot more redemptions than other funds. But if you return better like -7% then you'll probably get more money once investor confidence returns.
You are obviously not aware that employment is a lagging, not leading indicator. So employment figures are the last to show any recession. Instead look at these three leading indicators: 1) Yield curve 2) Building permits 3) New car sales Each of them has an accuracy of 80-100%, and they are all predicting a recession. For the best economic commentary available for free, see Roubini: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
Read an article the other day but am not able to find it. Read too many sites lol. The just of the article was the un/employment data released by the gummermint. Article went on to say that since the Clinton administration with the added assist from the Bush league the data is skewed today when compared to pre Clinton administration. Says the actual rate for unemployed if the pre Clinton formula for calculating the employment data were to be used would be a staggering 12.5%. Food for thought!
Yeah, anyone who believes government produced statistics without out knowing how they are calculated is pretty foolish. The formulas used to calculate inflation, employment, etc have been changed over time and usually have been tweaked to make things look better than they are. -Mike