I can't offer an opine of where the market is headed. If I had a good bead on things, I would have survived the last two corrections this year. My opine matters not. I am hunkering into some weird tortoise shell of day-trading the daily sentiment while at the same time feeling out the medium-term view to guide my bias. It was all so easy until Trump announced his trade war. But now we are in a whole different market. Years of study wasted. It is so sad! Alas, this is the business we are in. *le sigh* Such a love-and-hate relationship. Ack.
Frankly, I am a believer that everything is included in the charts, including Trump's mythomania... but maybe the charts themselves are becoming mythoman, who knows.
@Overnight and @SunTrader are you going to say something nice at last You make me doubt a lot and I need it big time. I am out today! If I could sell short I would start building a short position right at today's close, but I can only trade long (trading my retirement account). We should tick a little bit higher on Monday and start to go down; this is a textbook example of a mini bull trap. I think we will drift little by little lower starting next week, to accelerate a little when the low at 2448 is broken, then we will go visit the low at 2346, maybe break it by little and come back to go higher for few months (3 to 4) to reach probably 2687, before the big meltdown. The big guys need buyers (401ks); all those who sold at the low will be buying today or next week fearing to miss the run upside just to watch the market go down again and rebelotte, we do it again ...
I think I sold too early; going through the charts of the Dow, Nadaq and few companies they look like they have plenty of room on the upside, not shorting time yet. Monday and Tuesday will give more info on the direction of this bounce. If there is follow through Monday, then we may go higher, otherwise it will start to fizzle.
My take for tomorrow: It looks like (from the futures) it will probably open higher; if it is the case it will continue higher a bit then reverse to close near the lows of the day. If however, for some reason, it opens lower then it will probably trade sideways in a narrow range day. If we get an up day on a heavier volume, then I lost ... In all cases, tomorrow will be a key day.
I think we have seen the high of the day today. This will be a long pull back until the close, not a reversal yet.
I was expecting the pullback to be steeper than this. Tomorrow, should be a replay of today but will be closing at the lows of the day (A reversal day). We are very likely to push up to 2570-75 before going down. So... If we open up close to 2570-75 then expect the market to drift lower for the rest of the day to close near today's low. If, however, we open close to today's close then expect the market to go up to 2570-75 and reverse to close near the open. On a longer time frame: I expect the market to retrace starting tomorrow to 2460ish before pushing higher to 2640ish (I am adjusting my targets as the charts unfold) and then go down to break the recent low at 2346.
Did you make profit? If you did, you did not sell "too early". Man, listen to the song I posted! And listen carefully! Oy.