I am weary! I was talking about Monday and first trading day of January, as you may have guessed; I need some sleep. I am developing an automated trading system using JavaFX and it's killing me; it will take probably more than two years to complete.
Thinking a bit about tomorrow's action: It looks like it will spend most of the morning churning between 2475 and 2510 without breaking Friday's high, then dip to come back to close off the lows.
The expected dip did not happen, and the price traded in the expected range for the whole day. Wednesday is a very difficult day to guess, but it will certainly be a big range day and my bias is to the upside. If we get a strong day to the upside (not an outside bar), then expect the market to go revisit the lows (2350) soon after, before resuming the bounce (depending on how we go revisit those lows). If Wednesday is an outside day to the upside (markets dip then recover very strong), then we can go a lot higher and when it turns it will go a lot lower than the recent low. IMHO, the first scenario will happen.
The first scenario did not happen, which was obvious from the start of the day and the second scenario was short by less than 1 point!! This bounce is weak, I don't think we will go higher than 1575 before we go test the lows (may be break them) and come back to new highs. Tomorrow should be an up day, the next a down day and Friday an up day to finish the week at the high and start going down next week. So tomorrow, the markets will probably open high, then dip a little to come back to new highs. Happy New Year.
I am weary indeed! There are only two days left in the week not three. I continue to believe that we will go a little bit higher (despite AAPL guidance). The short term trend is still up, but AAPL does not help at all. I think today's low will hold and tomorrow is very likely to be an inside day, then Friday move higher, or move higher next week and reverse to go visit the recent low at 2346.
I don't get what you mean. I was wrong about the inside day thing; too optimistic. But the market will go higher. I think the bottom of this little retracement is in. The funny thing, you may be right 8 times in a row, and no body notice it, but everyone will notice the one time when you were wrong! I did never claim to be right every time. I f I am right 2/3 of the time I am the king of wall street; so far I did better. Take a chart SP500 and read what I wrote from the beginning and compare, it is that simple.
I think I am wrong (my model is wrong). We closed below 2467, so it has more chances to go down. But we still need a bigger retracement than this!!
Right at the point you admit you might be wrong might be where the market suddenly does what you thought it would in the first place? Hehe, it is a tough call as this is a weary environment.
Lol! It is a weary f**ing environment indeed!. Seriously, the 15 minute chart is definitely down, the 1 hour is screaming down, but the 4 hours is saying this is a pullback and the low will hold and the daily is saying the same! I don't freaking know which one to believe. My model tells me we should trade above 2520 to have any sustainable downside. Go figure... I think tomorrow is a key day, if we trade above 2487, then we will go higher before coming down, then going higher again before the meltdown. The meltdown cannot happen at this stage (we are oversold already), if it happens, IMHO, then we are not in a bear market and the market will turn even higher than you think. We need retracements for a "healthy" bear market as we need them for a bull market, and we still did not get it. I really appreciate your comments both of you and sunTrader; if you could give your opinion where the market is headed it will be even more interesting. Thank you.