No fooling. But my main point was about economic numbers of auto and home sales and collapsing crude prices.
Trying to spot the exact low is a losing game obviously. We did close below key levels in both SP and Dow and if we close below those levels for the month that would signal and uglier than ugly market, and even 1800 will not hold. We will get this bounce, we should not be far from it; probably the SP will test 2350 (20% retracement) before having a relief rally. On the short term, usually when the close is at the lows, the next day is an up day; we may have even a tiny up week next week (this week's close at lows). In all cases, it is very likely that the low at 1409 will be challenged before any sizable move upwards.
I think the selling looks like it has run its course; everybody is bearish; it is time for a relief rally to 2575-2630. Expect markets to tumble Wednesday and recover; but nothing is immune to a retarded tweet.
Today's action is pretty strong, it is very likely the beginning of a good bounce; the next two days will tell more how far the market will go up. Tomorrow should see a strong action to the upside if this rally has legs to the upside. If the market opens strong, expect it to soften in the afternoon. If, however, it dips in the morning, expect it to turn around at 11:00 to en up strong in the afternoon.
Bear market reaction are very often quick and "violent". Also often as quickly reversed. Bottoms, that hold, take time to form.
That's correct for long term bottoms. This one is in the works, but will not be a long term one, 10-12 weeks. I believe there is a shakeout going on, it will move up when people are desperate and sell, then they will be chasing it to the upside. We may see the low 2346 being challenged in the next three four weeks; but it will ultimately go up to reach at least 2575. IMHO obviously.
Two days action cannot tell anything. If the market was going far then today would have been a strong one; it is not. So the upside is losing momentum, but it does not mean we are going to crash from here (although everything is possible). We may go back visit the lows, that's what happens most of the time, before a sustainable rally takes place (that's what we call a shakeout). If something like that happens, then we will break 2685 shortly before going down hard.