"Things Could Get Messy" - Nomura Warns Bulls "Cannot Overstate Gamma Impact" From Tomorrow's Op-Ex

Banjo · Oct 15, 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/t...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

ET180 · Oct 15, 2020

The Russell looks very bullish. Totally rejected the overnight gap lower and came back into the week's balance. Expect probes into the higher end of the range next week.

Grantx · Oct 15, 2020

ET180 said:
The Russell looks very bullish. Totally rejected the overnight gap lower and came back into the week's balance. Expect probes into the higher end of the range next week.

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Wow. Ditto. My tpo charts look almost exactly the same. Colors and everything.

zghorner · Oct 16, 2020

ET180 said:
The Russell looks very bullish. Totally rejected the overnight gap lower and came back into the week's balance. Expect probes into the higher end of the range next week.

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what type of chart is that? is the volume integrated into the candlestick?

ph1l · Oct 16, 2020

zghorner said:
what type of chart is that? is the volume integrated into the candlestick?
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It looks like Market Profile.

Market Profile — All you need to know about Market Profile Charts & Market Profile Trading

Nataraj Malavade
Jul 19·9 min read

Have you ever wondered how to read the Market Profile charts?
Are you a beginner to the concepts of Market Profile Trading?

If your answer is YES, then this article is going to help you to find many clues related to market profile trading.

Being as a Market Profile Trader in India from the past few years, I have gone through several phases of markets using this method, Market Profile Concepts are like an ocean, in that I will make an attempt to convey the fundamentals. At the end of this article, you will be able to get clarity on the questions like,
What is market profile trading?, What Does market profile mean?, How to get a free market profile chart? & How to Read a Market Profile chart? Etc.

Well, Let’s begin.

Auction Process:
When I started my journey as a trader, I focused only on finding the so-called Holy Grail by hopping from one trading system to another as and when my strategy used to enter the drawdown phase. It was disheartening to see my old — Strategy work very well right after I stopped trading that system.

I have never asked the fundamental questions, like “What drives the market?”,” Why is the market moving up and down?” “What is my role in the market?” I was not sure about the very purpose of market existence. Commonly, most traders don’t take adequate time to understand the market’s basis that they are trying to conquer.

The only purpose of market existence is to facilitate trade between buyers and sellers. The auction process happens by auctioning from high to low and from low to high to find the area in which the trade can be facilitated comfortably.

Let’s understand this by taking an example of a supermarket. If the price of rice is too high, then the customers will avoid buying from that supermarket. The supermarket will sense that the price is too high because the inventory piles up. To clear this inventory, he will then lessen the amount to attract customers until they purchase back from him. However, if the supermarket slashes the rate too deeply, his inventory will rapidly reduce, and buyers will enjoy this lower price. They tend to accumulate rice. Finally, the price will balance between the two extremes of the trade, and value is established within these extremes. The same applies to the stock market.

Auction process in the chart
The auction process causes every tick movement on the chart.

Once the auction is started, competition and eagerness among buyers and sellers move the market up and down. Price would continue to go up until there is the last buyer. Similarly, the market would continue auctioning down until there is the last seller.

Market Profile is not an indicator that tells you where to buy and where to sell. It’s a tool that helps understand the dynamic market behavior by which you will understand the context or the big picture of the market.

Well,

as per my experience, context takes the first place before making any trading decisions. You know that the market is very dynamic and random by nature. And to survive here, an active thinking process is required by the trader.

Market Profile charts and concepts are relatively new to the trading world. The idea for the market profile started in the early 1980s. It is a technical concept with a unique charting technique developed by Mr.Peter Steidlmayer at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). It was open to the public in 1985. Unfortunately, many traders were not interested in Market Profile concepts because they thought it was difficult and quite tricky to apply. But in reality, the market profile is relatively simple and easy to grasp. It just requires a different way of looking at the market. It provides a distinct view of market activity as and when it happens. It is far easier to recognize important market information through the Market profile.

Even though the Market Profile is easy to learn, becoming familiar with the methods and mastering it does take its own sweet time. The learning curve will inevitably vary from one individual to another. It requires live observation of the charts for at least 3–5 months to understand how the pro-traders and institutional traders drive the markets and position themselves. As a trader, we often tend to see what we want to see and react based on this limited knowledge. Market Profile solves this perceptual ignorance to some extent

Peter Steidlmayer developed the Market Profile based on the statistical normal distribution to identify value in the market. The distribution analysis is a crucial analytical study in terms of gathering the data and understanding the statistics. It is a simplistic yet reliable statistical data distribution model. This distribution model occurs in almost every large group of data. If we examine the data for age, height, or weight of any large group of individuals, it results in a distribution curve.

The Normal Distribution curve
Basic Jargons of the Market Profile
TPO (Time Price Opportunity):
TPOs are essential elements of the market profile chart. In general, TPOs are visually represented as alphabets.

As and when the trades take place at different price levels, it creates a trading range, and this range is denoted by the letters to represent the market activity.

TPO Charts along with candlestick chart.
Observe the above image where the TPOs are plotted alongside the regular 30min candlestick chart. We call this profile as SPLIT PROFILE.

And next to image A, we can see how different alphabets denote every 30min candle range. The first 30 min range is represented by the letter “A.” Letter “B denotes the next 30 min range,” and the same continues till the closing candle of the market.

If we left-align the TPOs of the split profile, the result is a bell-shaped curve that we call it as UNSPLIT PROFILE.

Each TPO has its defined height, also known as “TPO SIZE,” which varies from one script to another concerning the chart visibility. There is no thumb rule to define TPO size. However, I’ve made a table for TPO size based on the price range of the instrument. Refer to the below chart to get more clarity on this.

TPO size table
For example, let’s assume NIFTY’s price is trading at 11700; this price falls in the range of 10000–20000. Hence, I will give an input of 500 (considering tick size as 0.01), representing the TPO size as 5Points, which suggests every 5 point move results in plotting one TPO ( Or one letter ).

In general Open price is denoted as “O” and Closing price as “#.” This “O” and “#” are also considered as TPOs.

IB Range (Initial Balance Range):

The initial balance is defined as the range of price movement during the first hour of the day’s trading. In general, the retail traders look for a fair price, and they tend to create a range in the first hour, which is called an IB range.

IB Range is the foundation on any trading day as it gives crucial information about the probable day structure and the possible trading range for that day.

About 55–70% of the time high or the day’s low is established during the initial balance period.

Initial Balanace (IB Range)
The initial balance is a crucial period for any trading day. It is essential for a trader to carefully monitor and examine the initial balance for the scripts that they trade. I utilize this information very often in our studies.

You can visit my YouTube channel named Nataraj Malavadeto find many educational videos related to the Initial balance concept.

Value Area :

Without knowing the chart’s value area, My answer would never be complete. Value Area is the area where the price is most accepted on any given day.

There are three major parameters to it; they are POC (Point Of Control), VAL (Value Area Low), and VAH (Value Area High). In a market profile, these parameters are derived by calculating the TPO’s count. Since it is calculated by using price, we call it a Price Profile. I have seen some profile traders use these levels as support and resistance, but I don’t use them in such a way. These are the structural references, and I see them as a total value rather than particular levels. The below image shows the value area in the market profile chart.

Value area in market profile chart
Tails or Extremes:

Tails or Extremes plays a very crucial role in spotting the footprints of OTFs(Other time frames) or Smart money.

These Market makers take advantage and accumulate positions aggressively in the lower or higher levels of the day. This OTF activity leads to plotting single letter TPOs on a market profile chart that is called as extremes or tails. Extremes are a sign of aggressive action shown by the smart money, which can often happen at the top or bottom of the profile.

If we have single letters prints within the profile, we call it as single prints. A min of two TPO prints is required to consider the single prints as extremes or tails. The longer the tail, the higher the conviction of smart traders at that price level or zone. If the single letters are printed at the bottom of the profile, it indicates the presence of Smart Buyers. Similarly, the single letters above the profile indicate the presence of Smart sellers.

Extremes in the market profile chart
Initiative and Responsive activities :

The market has its flow; the direction and range development of the market is caused by smart money. These Big players have their methodologies. They can initiate new trades even by buying at high prices or selling at lower costs. And also, they can respond to the price opportunities by selling at high prices and buying at low prices.

In either way, they have a clear plan behind what they are doing. However, the tempo of the move and confidence level behind these activities differ.

The idea of understanding the momentum and confidence level in the movement can help a trader for better position sizing and also improves the trade conviction — these activities differentiated by comparing present-day activity with previous day value.

Initiative & Responsive activities
Balanced and Imbalanced market :

Open price and placement play a crucial role in day trading as it is the starting price level of the auction on any trading day.

Once a new trading day begins, the open price will fall in one of the following three possible locations relative to the previous day’s activity.

1) Open within the previous day value area.
2) Open outside the last value day and within the range.
3) Open outside the previous day range.

Each scenario reveals essential information in terms of market behavioral factors.

Day Structures :

How to get free market profile charts?
Well,

These are the fundamental understanding of the MARKET PROFILE chart.

There are many variations and methods by which a trader can make sensible decisions in day trading.

I hope this article helps you if you like the content please share it with your friends who are looking for similar information and also make sure you follow my account to get notified when I post new articles here.

Happy Trading & Learning,
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zghorner · Oct 17, 2020

ph1l said:
It looks like Market Profile.
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thank you very much, new to me.

ET180 · Oct 17, 2020

Yes, it's a market profile chart. I find that it does a better job of showing market consensus of value areas than simple candlesticks or OHLC bars. It basically allows one to look "inside" the bars. But I use it in combination with daily and 30 minute OHLC charts for swing trading.

zghorner said:
what type of chart is that? is the volume integrated into the candlestick?
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zghorner · Oct 17, 2020

ET180 said:
Yes, it's a market profile chart. I find that it does a better job of showing market consensus of value areas than simple candlesticks or OHLC bars. It basically allows one to look "inside" the bars. But I use it in combination with daily and 30 minute OHLC charts for swing trading.
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I’ve been looking into it and it is pretty interesting in that it doesn’t necessarily show volume But the Length of time it was traded at a specific price. I’ll keep looking into it...do you have a recommendation on a source for these types of charts?

ET180 · Oct 18, 2020

zghorner said:
I’ve been looking into it and it is pretty interesting in that it doesn’t necessarily show volume But the Length of time it was traded at a specific price. I’ll keep looking into it...do you have a recommendation on a source for these types of charts?
More...

I might add volume for the last few sessions. I'll have to pull tick data in order to do that. I figure time as a proxy should fairly accurately reflect volume, but perhaps volume could provide some additional clues as to what is happening in the market. I made my own charts, but I used WindoTrader as a reference. It's pretty popular and probably the most reputable source for market profile. James Dalton uses it. I like making my own stuff both as a programming challenge and also because it allows me ultimate flexibility in how I view and process data. My goal is to automate as much as possible. I basically have some scans for chart patterns that I run every night and then look at market profile of ES, NQ, and RTY to determine my risk appetite. If you're looking for something free, looks like ThinkOrSwim will get you most of the way there:

This guy also covers market profile and I think offers live market profile charts during the day for a small fee of around $1 / day:

ET180 · Oct 18, 2020