Well, LTCM and the Russian & Asian crises all came in within the same general period. To dismiss them as "regional" now is sort of hindsight analysis. It could've been very bad. Same with S&L coupled with junk bond crisis and several other things in the late 80s. Quite similar to today, including a major slowdown in M&A for a little while. If we make it through sub-prime without any major problems, then people will be saying "oh, that sub-prime sutff..that was well-contained..this new XYZ crisis is for real!" during the next easy credit/bubble scenario. The current crisis always seems the worst...
Now I'm really worried as any time I have heard "already proven by economists" it will be proven incorrect!
Been watching what you've said for a good bit now. Over the years you have harped on the built on stilts term a lot. For most of this bull market in fact as far as I can see. You've stated before that you hold cash, land, and realestate. But you've been bearish on stocks as long as I've been around. That has been several hundred points ago on the S&P. I think you do well trading very short term because you believe in your indicators, but you have a horrendous record on the long term because you are risk averse to investing in stocks and don't trust the government, ect. I'm no trying to put you down, I'm just trying to point out a pattern that seems to emerge. You seem to do very well with the above stated plan of bringing in money with daytrading and putting it to work in other areas of the economy you don't see as risky. I agree that at some points you have to be out of the market. As it stands I'm in cash and realestate as well. But from a long term perspective, I'm just waiting for a proper place to buy back in. It will take a lot more damage and more than a couple weeks of retacement to signal the bull dead for my long term bias. I bet if you applied to tools you day trade with for bias on a weekly chart they would indicate you should have kept buying these retacements all the way up. Whether or not this will happen again or this indeed is the end hasn't been decided. For the time horizon I'm dealing with. I think more bull than bear for the end of this decade. I could be proven wrong and will be sitting in cash, bonds, and realestate, until the bull returns.
Baby boomers will continue to work later in life and add to the economy rather then wihtdraw all their money. Also the affect of baby boomers liquidating will be gradual since they won't all be selling at once.
You also have to take into account that most people are investing on auto pilot by legislation. You have to put your retirement money somewhere approved of. Most advisors do the average in month in month out dance. Means demand doesn't really go anywhere anymore. Some players come in and out quickly. But do MOST?