Look at the advancing/declining line in this rally-- they have been often referred to during the selloff as an indicator of a sick market. Now we are at 2:1 advancers over decliners today. And past rallies have been similiar. Despite the gloom and doom, especially news that hit yesterday considering the flight to quality (90 day t-bills) probably by money market managers, things are looking pretty good, at least for a nice move. Interestingly, anyone notice the lack of correlation between usdjpy and equities today?? First day I've seen it like this in weeks. Is the deleveraging over?
2-1 is weak, during the decline we had 5-1 declines lead. The higher the market goes the less likely a rate cut. Can't have it both ways, if the market breaks lower, then the fed may do something, sorry.
like I said http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1572370#post1572370 this is the start of a long term rally. I think the ZN is way overbought right now http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1575999#post1575999 I see a sharp adjustment coming in that contract. long stocks short bonds blackguard
I'm not saying to go all in - actually today i've been selling into this (long calls i've accumulated over the past week or so). But who knows, I may be premature, very premature. People are pretty gloomy now, but the truth remains that the consumer hasn't YET stopped, and we won't know how bad the housing situation is for awhile. The credit freeze-up could pass in time, just as quickly as it became a crisis. Then what do the bears have to sell on?
How soon everyone forgets the 2000 point advance from April to July 07 in the dow. Now we are down 1000, and everyone on wallstreet is crying for a rate cut, it's absurd.
minime> How soon everyone forgets the 2000 point advance from April to July 07 in the dow. Now we are down 1000, and everyone on wallstreet is crying for a rate cut, it's absurd. I think the point is that the thousand points came in 5 trading days! Also world borrowing markets are seized it has noting to do with stocks. Ben is not targeting stocks he is trying to forestall a great calamity. Don't forget his specialty in 1999 he co authored a significant paper with Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist on how MARKETS CAN WORSEN AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. How funny that it has all come to light. Ben is VERY familiar with past Fed moves AND mistakes and happens top be a Great Depression buff! Nobody is crying for anything but a fair shake. Why should my stocks go down because some fat cats over leveraged and got caught with their pants down? Why should the fed allow shortsellers to try and take advantage of the market? Why not make it a level field and show them trades go both ways? Not one hedge fund will be bailed out- just banks. The Harvard endowment fund which took a $300 million plus loss in July on Sowood's antics... would you believe even with that- they are flat for the month! Yes while all our stocks go down the tubes for no good reason- the folks at the heart of the missteps- they are even! Obviously with no withdraws from an endowment fund, Harvard enjoys a unique position of not having to sell at the bottom, but it just goes to show a well run fund can survive if they are spread out with good risk perimeters in other areas than the blowup.... SI