I'm turning in to a frightened old man. I had a very unnerving experience last night when I hit the sack. I had a empty feeling in the pit of my stomach like I have not felt since I first saw action. I like to think I'm pretty well abreast of what the general economy is doing just by the nature of my work. I know many people in the manufacturing and industrial construction industries. To a man, every damn person says they've never seen it this slow and what's worse, absolutely no prospects for improved business on the horizon. These are not kids I'm talking to. We all went through the down turn during the early 80's and I can tell you, slow as it was then, it was nothing like this. Like that hot sweaty night I had years ago I feel that what we're experiencing is only the beginning of some really hard times. Times that few of us are truly prepared for. You think you are well trained, but training ain't reality. We're in some deep shit!
Q1 and probably Q2 of this year will be an absolute horror show beyond belief. I've interviewed many people from different industries and the response is all the same. depression. Barry doesn't know what the hell he's doing, he really has no idea. The people that got us into this mess in the first place are the ones responsible for fixing it. The Swiss Franc and Gold are the only places I feel safe.
I will agree with you when I actually see numbers that correspond to the great depression. Since 1954 there has been four different time periods where unemployment has been worse than it is now. 1954- 7.8% 1975- 9.0% 1982- 10.8% 1992- 7.8% If you look at the big picture things look normal. If you look at the small picture than I suggest making comments about small picture things.
Under President Lyndon Johnson, the government decided individuals who had stopped looking for work for more than a year were no longer part of the labor force. This dramatically decreased the jobless rate reported by the government. If unemployment were still tallied the way it was in the 1930s, today's jobless rate would be closer to 16.5 percent
Lots of people are still living off their savings, we;ll need a couple months for the shit to hit the fan, by the beggining of the second half of the year, a horrific show will unfold..... Obama has nothing to do with it, no politician can solve it or was the cause of it, the American people got lazy, greedy and for too long lived above their means,,,,it's payback time. as simple as that. I now live off trading, but once was an enterprise architect for IBM, Accenture..all my friends still in the biz talk about paralysis....This is more serious than how it looks.
Lots of people are still living off their savings, ---------------------------- They very well could be,esp if one spouse gets laid off. What may become interesting if middleclass people go bankrupt and are unable to access their 401k's. Imagine having 100k in a 401 k, no job, unemployment benes won't cover living expenses? Basically you're broke but have untouchable assets. Now suppose the gov't allows people to access this money, market will tank further.
I fear you are both right. People are hanging on by a thread. I visit the malls here and they're ghost towns. Hotel occupancies have plummeted. I'm hearing things like 25% occupancy at many of the nicer hotels. This is way worse than 9/11. If any of you have money and have wanted to come to Hawaii, now is the time. Bargains galore...
I'm a low level employee loading trucks for deliveries to grocery stores. We don't even work 40 hours a week anymore. Frankly though, this isn't the worst I've seen, because I live in San Diego. In the early 90's, after the Soviet Union breakup and the fall of the Berllin wall, San Diego turned into a ghost town. There was no work anywhere, it didn't just kill the aero/defense industry here. I ended up working at telemarketing places back then. Goddam what a miserable time that was. Our higher up muckety-mucks are trying to downplay how bad it really is, for whatever reason. They told us that last year's volume was 98% of the previous year's. I don't know why they would stand there and lie to us like that when we can see with our own eyes how much work has dropped off. Maybe they figure that hourly employees aren't smart enough to notice that their paychecks are much less that 98% of the previous year's. A couple of guys at work have recently married and had children. they are very scared right now. One even pulled me aside and confided in me all the problems he is facing right now. His wife doesn't understand why the cable tv is being shut off and why she has to cook every day now. My trading isn't going to damb well either. I've never been very good working the short side of the market. I damb sure better learn how though. EDIT to add - my kitty is very sick right now. I took her to a pet ER and they wanted over $1000 a day to keep her there. A couple of years ago i would have readily agreed to something like that to help my kitty, but now I flat out can't afford that. She's spending the night in a local vet's office tonight, I have to get her out of there tommorrow AM.
I hope your cat gets better. Had to put mine down last year after 18 years together. Damn tough thing to do. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2301701 A good cat she was.