Someone mentioned the other day that no one was calling bottoms during this latest slide .... spoke too soon! http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...=/nm/20020921/bs_nm/markets_stocks_poll_us_dc Dow: 50,000! Nasdaq: 25,000! hahaha
I rarely here anyone trying to pick the bottom anymore. In fact, the only opinions out there is that we're going lower. Before, we heard DOW 36,000, now it's DOW 5,000. The pessimism, and lack of bullish commentary, is usually a good signal that we could be getting close to a bottom. The rally, if it does start, will be very subdued, alot of backing and filling. Anyone who's waiting for 99 to 2000 to be back, is in for a shock. Maybe 2 to 3 decades from now, we'll get a market like that. We're back to normalized returns on the indexes of 10 - 12% a year. Maybe even lower, and the ext go-go period will return the overall avg. to 10 - 12%. Just my opinion, but hey, if I'm wrong, I'll jump on board. I never have any biases.
Actually, the general opinion out there is that the markets are going to go higher, not lower. According to the hulbert Digest, the number of newsletter writers is more bullish now, than they were at the July 24 low. Also, the Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisors is a little more bullish than it was a week ago. Also a sign that there a bit too much bullishness out there. The put/call ratio did go above 1.0, a sign of a potential bottom (short term or long term), but I think that we are still in a primary bear, and no where close to a bottom. I agree, we have to play the market direction, whether it is a bear down trend, a bear market rally, or a true bull market. Before we hit bottom though, there needs to be some major despair on the part of investors, big sell offs (90-90 days), and a reduction in trading volumes, as people give up on the stock markets. My 2cents. Kevin
I'm with you on that one, a lot more caution definitely...hope it won't be 2 to 3 decades (sucks for the old folks) but very possible.