There won't be time to short oil in 2011!!!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. S2007S


    He says there wont be "time" to short oil, is this hilarious or what, does he actually think triple digit oil prices can be sustained in this economy. When does the hype in the commodities market end, everything is just outrageously over priced and it has nothing to do with supply and demand!!!
    Oil will fall 10X faster than it rose when commodities finally correct.

    Never Short Oil In 2011?
    Published: Tuesday, 11 Jan 2011 | 1:46 PM ET
    By: Drew Sandholm

    Halftime Report

    As U.S. oil prices continue to climb, there won't be a time to short oil in 2011, said Joe Terranova on Tuesday.

    "For all of 2011, you're either long oil or you're flat. You're never short oil in 2011," said Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners.

    Oil prices [CLC1 91.27 2.02 (+2.26%) ] rose sharply on Tuesday, as a production platform in the Gulf of Mexico curbed more supply on top of the shut Alaska crude pipeline still keeping more than half a million barrels per day of output offline.

    "Supply disruptions is something we've not had to deal with and now in this demand recovery, if you have slight supply disruptions oil is going to go a lot higher," Terranova said.
  2. m22au


  3. Good observation with your correlation between SPX and OIL.

    Both are manipulated by FEDs through QE1 and QE2.

    However, IMHO the correlation is close to over being over.
    1. Earnings season will bring the reality.
    2. EMU is looking shabby again and Fear is mounting once more.
    3. All Pundits, News Reports are super bullish.
    4. Higher Oil prices will effect forward Guidence, which IMHO is going to be an eye opener.
    5. The S&P on a Technical Level is looking Top Heavy.
    6. QE3 is around the corner.

    With that said, SPX/S&P/INDU may start to chop lower into end of FEB and really take a dive March/April.

    Now to OIL:
    1. The disruption will be played upon for months, bullish.
    2. Most recent Reports on production/out put are lower.
    3. 7 year no drill in Gulf Policy by Obama and Rig Count in the Gulf dropping in production as well.
    4. Colder weather into March/April
    5. The Manufacturing base in the US, output is up...burning more oil.
    6. Inflation is pushing up the prices and QE3 could be around the corner.
    7. Speculators
    8.OPEC is silent even though a few months ago they said they liked oil around mid 70s and that 100 would hurt the world economy.

    These all point to a trend in Oil that, IMHO will continue towards the 100 mark.
  4. is Terranova a good trader? is his fund selling Oil today?
  5. I don't know, but Eric Boiling has a pretty good track record, both formerly of MBF and he said $100 oil is a given. Based on Fed trashing of USD I think he is right.
  6. S2007S


    I stopped watching fast money a while ago but when I tune in maybe once a or twice a month all he talks up is oil, oil, oil.....

    He makes it sound no matter what happens oil cant slip below $80 again, I believe a time will come when oil will be sitting back under $20. I remember the run to $150, most fools thought it was sustainable calling for even higher oil prices then the collapse came. If you strip out all the stimulus and QE's oil would be sitting pretty under $35 a barrel. But thanks to Bubble ben bernanke we have more asset bubbles to worry about.
  7. S2007S


    So what happens after $100, $105, $120, $130. I cant wait for $4.00 gas and a 10-15% higher grocery bill over the next year due to inflated oil prices, makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside, nothing like paying for those extra increases in the price of goods because of higher skyrocketing oil prices. This is all due to a broken system.