There must be [at least] 20 ways... of igniting a long term bear market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cruzan, Jul 31, 2007.

  1. Cruzan


  2. ughh that geezer. He is so full of it
  3. Or... all that stuff could be baked into the market already.

    Just some debt concerns and big hedgies collapsing.

    Where do hedge fund managers do when they blow out and get fired anyway?

    I don't think I've ever seen one IRL.

  4. Is this guy for real. I think that we are headed down too but this guy is citing things that are completely irrelevant to the equity markets.

    Historically war is actually good for the economy, which might actually explain part of our raging bull market right now.

    Real estate price decreases have historically not correlated much with equity markets. Look at the stock market from 89-95'.

    China's economy is overheating because it is artificially devaluing its currency to maintain the growth. Once the are forced to revalue their currency our products will be able to compete and the trade deficit will drop significantly.

    The market was already in trouble before 9/11 because of collapse. I don't know why people always say that 9/11 caused a collapse. 9/11 caused a temporary run on bank reserves which is controllable by the FED. It is hard for me to imagine an attack that will result in a crash.

    Sure a weakening dollar has impacts, but you can't complain about a trade deficit in one line and then criticize a factor that reduces it in another. The weakening dollar makes our goods more attractive on the world market, meaning the the trade deficit shrinks. So which will cause the bear market, the weak dollar, or the trade deficit? An interesting thing to consider is that the US is the biggest trading partner for many countries, but our exports relative to GDP are quite small. This is indicative of the fact that most others are hurt more by reduced trade than we are. Which begs the question, is the trade deficit really that important. It certainly is a non-factor in determining a bear market.

    Our image has nothing to do with a long term bear market. The smart money simply doesn't care.

    We'll see the next bear market long before health care and SS problems are too big to handle.

    Now the ones that might actually be an issue.

    The biggest one is going to be the unwinding of the carry trade. That will kick start things. Almost this entire recent drop can be correlated with it. Bulls need the USD to gain against the JPY. Problem is that the only place to go from here is down. I see a pretty massive selling of dollars to buy yen soon.

    Oil pricing getting out of control are going to be an issue. It seems that some of the rising costs of oil were being absorbed by the producers in the forms of more efficient technology and other measures. Companies struggling to maintain credit will likely have a much harder time absorbing this cost increases. If inflation really picks up, then that will only add to the deflating dollar.
  5. They duck around for a while and then start/get hired by a new fund. Think Brian Hunter...

    2003-- Deutch Bank loss of $54MM gets him in trouble

    2006--Amaranth Fund blowup

    2007-- Starts Solengo Capital Advisors
  6. Wow. He must be a great marketer.

    Who's giving this guy money?

    Maybe he's buying hookers and blow for the pension people. LOL.

  7. erToo


    1. War/military defense budget busting
    The tab on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is now over $600 billion, with long-term estimates exceeding $2 trillion. Now many neocons openly predict the president will invade Iran before the next elections. WWIII will be the new "unintended consequence."

    2. Real estate bubble raging
    Inventories rising. Prices declining. Subprime failures rippling through hedge funds, banks. Home builders' guidance bleak. Declines expected into 2008 and beyond. The Economist says global housing is "the biggest bubble in history," fueling stock market speculation.

    3. Foreign trade imbalance, trillions new debt
    We spend like teen drug addicts with stolen credit cards. To pay, we're forced to borrow an unsustainable $1 trillion annually. Foreigners now own over $2.5 trillion of America.

    4. China's economy overheating
    She's smoking! But the Beijing bubble could pop long before the Summer Olympics.

    5. Private-equity credit imploding
    Moody's downgrades their debt. Credit crunch. U.S. economy hit. Blackstone "flips" Equity Office Properties in five short months. Congress may kill tax breaks.

    6. 'Homeland Insecurity' failures
    Borders leaking like sieves. Ports and chemical plants unprotected. Meanwhile, FEMA governed by politics, "gut instincts" and "good-job-brownies," not intelligence.

    7. Hedge funds hurting retirement plans
    Assets doubled since 2000 to over $1.3 trillion as pension funds, discouraged by low stock market returns, take bigger risks, further endangering your retirement.

    8. Oil rocketing toward $100 a barrel
    Crude's again pushing new records. Detroit is no longer the "Big 3," yet continues fighting increases in mileage standards, while marketing to the big gas-guzzling egos.

    9. Weak U.S. dollar keeps sinking
    Foreign nations are diversifying reserves away from an ever-weakening dollar, further damaging America's global credit rating.

    10. Federal budget deficits
    GAO head warns America's headed for "bankruptcy." Federal debt now $8.7 trillion. We'll add another $200 billion this year. By 2010, interest on debt will equal the defense budget.

    11. Social Security entitlements
    Economists call it the "coming generational storm," estimating massive 44% cuts in benefits or 44% increases in taxes. Time bomb ticks as politicians babble on, in denial.

    12. Medicare's massive deficits
    Big pharma's greed controls. Prescription drug benefits added unfunded $8 trillion. Estimates of $36.6 trillion deficit by 2027. Going broke faster than Social Security.

    13. Health-care-insurance deficit
    Yes, "Sicko;" with 47 million uninsured, costs skyrocketing, inflation rampant.

    14. Climate change fuels global wars
    Not Gore: The Pentagon's own research says "climate change" is the "mother of all national security issues," creating geopolitical conditions triggering wars worldwide.

    15. Personal savings shortfall
    We love consuming! So America's savings rate is below zero, from 10% in early 80s.

    16. Consumer debt surging
    Except for the military, Americans don't know "sacrifice." We live beyond our means. Consumer debt exceeds $2 trillion. Bankruptcies and foreclosures accelerating.

    17. Corporate pension defaults
    Congress lets pension funds use unrealistically low estimates of future returns which create underfunding. Later, after benefits disappear, U.S. taxpayers must bail them out.

    18. Local government pension deficits
    Over $400 billion of entitlements will exhaust local taxpayer resources. And in a recession, collapsing revenues will make matters even worse.

    19. International credibility deficit
    Gitmo, Abu Ghraib, black sites, wiretapping, more: America needs an image makeover.

    20. Washington politics in endless gridlock
    Which is more childish: Republicans vs. Democrats? Or Lindsay, Britney and Paris? At least the Hollywood trio can't set up a global meltdown, like our do-nothing leaders.


    One heck of a wall of worry!

    --- but I will keep a eye open on how this Lindsay Lohan thing plays out.