Yep, pretty much. That happens. As long as you're doing it when price is around your setup and trigger, then it gives you an added edge of not getting whipped out so much. And yeah, it's going to reverse, but that's why God gave us stop loss orders... That's why you have to pick the right pairs or if you're an equities trader, the right stocks, that don't have as many of these crazy movements frequently. Sure, it will happen, but it's all about reducing your risk as much as possible. And, more importantly, accepting the fact that it will.
Differences of trading views, I suppose. Show me anyone on earth who can, using ANY means, conceive of what the direction of even the next TIC will be... and I will show you the next $$$googolaire! So far, it's never happened. Not even once. Think it over. x ps: and, Michael, if you can so such a thing... would you mind loaning me a few hundred $zillion... I'll pay ya back next week.
as long as the trend is clean enough to adjust your MAE without creating a stop more than 1:3 risk to benefit... then the instrument you trade has a trend clean enough....try pinpointing that on the ES for example.
No one is saying anything about predicting.... I don't have to predict. I can backtest an instrument for 3-4 years and see how well it trends using my system. You just reiterated what I said -- you don't have to predict the markets to make money. As I'm sure you're aware, if you backtest and walk forward your edge, and it yields results that you're happy with, then follow the plan and don't deviate from it. It really is that simple. I'm sure I'm just preaching to the choir here so I'll stop...
I never meant to indicate that there's no way to win. Just that there's no way to tell which way the next tic will go, up or down... let alone a trend. No way. No how. That includes backtesting. However, if you are saying that backtesting a system will show if it will win or lose, then yes, I certainly agree that it is a fairly reliable way to avoid losing money. I wouldn't count on it to make money, even if backtesting showed it was the Holy G. But, over time, trading the strategy real time live on a simulator could also show you if it was a loser. Does that mean that trading structure would continue working in a live trading market environment? No. x
Then how do u trade? I am exploring trendlines. Pretty sophisticated, I know. But having some success.