Michael, "They trend very clean.." They trend better than other instruments, first hand experience from you ?
With all due respect, I don't think they "trend clean" at all! In reality, a "trend," at best, is strictly an AFTER-the-fact phenomena. Demonstration of this is Soros going on record just prior to the last-quarter 2004 1600-pt climb in EUR/USD that lasted 90-days. He said (paraphrased)"I see no major move coming in currencies." The following move was the greatest, most severe "trend" in 15-years. And there were NO indicators that either predicted or showed ANY trend occurring at that time or going to happen - only afterward - moment by moment, day by day, tic by tic, did indicators (fundamental or technical) record it. Just as many euro longs got wiped out in the 1600-pt spike as euro shorts (I think). Anyone who dissagrees with this trending view is an idiot. No offense, Michael, for you are only pointing out that they (currencies) DO trend - that is true. But there must be a distinction made here in what they DO versus knowing (which way) they WILL - up, down or sideways. I will make a friendly dissagreement with ES in that, even when currencies trend, they are anything BUT "clean." Their moves (during the time they happen) are usually very messy. x
It's already more than one month passed and the double must have a lot of effects. Since the currency is a non-stop trading, I think this guy made a lot of $$$ and now he's probably retire peacefully and happily. LOL.
I guess I miss your point. Trend followers know that they won't be clean... heck, I'm right 33% of the time... I accept that because I know my homeruns will carry me through. And sure, they trade sideways at times, but that's just part of it. In terms of knowing what they're going to do -- I think therein lies the root of the problem. Everyone thinks they have to predict the market. You don't have to predict the market to make money... So are they clean? Maybe that's a bad choice of words. But it's kinda like arguing over spilled milk. We know markets don't trend clean -- I could care less if they do as long as I pick up the majority of the trend... :shrug:...
when in the sideways mode, draw a channel....put limit orders on each side and let the wind blow you where it will...just wait and get that strong clean trend 75 or more pips depending on the pair you trade... If you do not think that the trend is clean...then use a daily chart !! You guys are great to debate with...thanks for the set-up sKalpZy...this will be a fun conversation! Michael B.
Exactly. My only problem is knowing exactly when you're in that sideways mode, which often means you've already gotten whipsawed substantially... however I would use something like 3-4 bars of sideways movement to say, ok, I'm in a choppy market. Then plot your trendlines top and bottom, and set your limit orders... When you can detect choppy markets reliably, you let me know, eh?
Sirpy, try this... rolling 3D daily range added to current price and subtracted from current price ....there is a channel.... evaluate if you high or low in the real channel and compare to your new channel for the bias...
That's like saying, Just PISS in the wind and turn around if it splashes your knickers! What happens when the trend reverses 150 PIPS? UMM>>>>>>>>>oops wrong side?