You have to ask yourself why the White House is sending Geithner and Summers and just about anyone they can to the media outlets that are happy to give them air time, and then regurgitate their claim that strong job numbers are expected in the Spring. I'll ask this again. Why is this happening? No public data supports these claims, and yet the White House is putting itself visibly on the line by making these predictions. Political beltway reporting has shown in the past few weeks that the White House is moving away from discussing healthcare and is doing what has been described as a "hard pivot" towards jobs and deficit reduction. To my mind there is something odd about this. Either the WH is simply seeing numbers different than what the public sees, which is highly unlikely. The other possibility is that they're preparing to cook the BLS numbers in the hopes of fooling the economy back into growth. I find this also somewhat incredible, not that they'd lie, but that they'd lie about something that is so easily refuted. The other possibility is that all of us (bears) are just wrong, and this ocean steamer of an economy that we call the USA is going to right itself in the next few months. I just don't buy it, for reasons discussed here many times. So why is the White House making this gambit? Or is it as simple as they are expecting people to forget (with media help) if they are wrong (again)? http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2314657820091223?type=marketsNews
Jobless claims have been falling for months. The unemployment numbers have been improving for months. The trajectory of all this is very clear. Its absolutely not unreasonable to believe that we will be seeing positive prints on the NFP starting very soon.
It's been explained many times why this is so. And that this is not necessarily evidence for better numbers, but evidence of people taking themselves out of the job hunt. Now I can't claim 100% either way, but I strongly favor the theory that the numbers could only improve if there are less exhausted job seekers being counted, amongst other statistical "techniques" that serve to embellish the big picture. So again, why is the WH making such a big gamble on this interpretation of the data?? They can and most likely are wrong. Then what? Why not just wait for it to appear, rather than putting themselves on the line?
There is about to be a pickup in job numbers (in the tens of thousands) that will start showing up on the payroll numbers and the administration will take the credit for it. It'll be the census workers.
Is that going to be starting in the spring? I had thought that was later in the year? And yes, I do recall this being pointed out and no doubt they will take credit for it. Is the market stupid enough to fall for these hole digging jobs? Probably, or at least they'll use whatever excuse they can to further this "rally". But is that enough to shave off the kind of numbers they (the WH) are predicting?
Plus minus i must remind you that even the 450k weekly cliams we're at now is within striking DISTANCE OF THE HIGHS DURING THE LAST RECESSION(I BELIEVE THE HIGHS WERE 540K OR SO). so the # are still incredibly high for 10 months into an upswing. #2 all the lower unemployment claims mean "ARE CO'S HAVE STOPPED FIRING OR CLAIMS FOR MILLIONS ARE RUNNING OUT". there still are no signs of co's really hiring. you can't fire forever as we've already lost 15 mil jobs.another fact is you need 150k a month job growth just to keep the unemployment rate at 10%. this is mind boggling. most jobs are not coming back period.heres the bottom line. the mkt has disounted 5% gdp and a 5% unemployment rate. the mkt due to massive gov't propping and buying has discounted one of the greatest v shaped recoveries of all time. go look at a cat or fdx's earnings. stks have run 300% within striking distance of all time highs yet earnings are down 50% from peak earnings of 2007.we have a massive mania we're in.
Yes, agreed. Thanks for adding this color. You help paint the scary picture of the future. So it still leaves my real question unanswered. Why is the White House so confident? Either they are about to pull a scam with the help of the media, they are stupid, or they just think they can get away with being wrong. I vote for #3, I don't believe 1 would work, and while I detest their political ideology, I don't believe they're stupid. Arrogantly stubborn, yes, but not outright stupid as to actually believe in their own propaganda. It will be an interesting Spring.
plus minus if you go back and look at many periods in history the mkts will turn down when the news looks good. my saying is "if its time for the mkt to fall it will fall no matter what the hype" in 2002 the mkt tanked as unemployment got better and the ism was over 50 the whole year. we just happen to be in the most deafening hyped mkt in our history and its hard to imagine stks ever falling.as far as what the white house knows i'd say nothing. they're hyping and praying like the rest. i'm watching carefully to see when the mkt no longer reacts to 'better than expected news"
lol...It seems to me that the unemployment rate could be -100% and GDP could be -100% and all the perma-bears would STILL be claiming that all the masses are being lied too.