There is no recession. Never was , never will be!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by HedgefundTrader2, Apr 30, 2008.

  1. Markets anticipate; markets do not care about first-quarter data, since it is late April. Likewise, fund managers in general buy stocks based on future earnings projections, not on past earnings.

    Yes, a recession has not yet been confirmed, but some would argue that a recession will be confirmed, since current economic trends suggest slowdown.

    Their educated guesses may prove right, or they may prove wrong.
     
    #51     Apr 30, 2008
  2. Hallelujah - no reseshun

    [​IMG]
     
    #52     Apr 30, 2008
  3. HFT, you there?

    Lets speak in your terms, in all these post you have yet to prove you are a fund trader, where is the empirical data?
     
    #53     Apr 30, 2008
  4. Hilarious!

    pS
     
    #54     Apr 30, 2008
  5. [​IMG]
     
    #55     Apr 30, 2008
  6. piezoe

    piezoe

    Thanks, Grail. I appreciate the response.

     
    #56     Apr 30, 2008
  7. This is complete fiction. Shame on you! "Negative GDP growth" means that the economy is shrinking, growing at a rate less than zero, NOT repeat NOT growing albeit at a lower "rate of change."

    This is not calculus here and we need not take derivatives. Today's GDP numbers are positive (+0.6%) therefore the economy is technically not shrinking; it GREW by 0.6%.

    Why make it this difficult?
     
    #57     Apr 30, 2008
  8. While I am well aware that the NBER and company intentionally do their damned-est to confound the population about the true definition of recession, by the logic you outlined above, two theoretical quarters of 60% and 50% GDP growth that follow a quarter of 70% GDP growth would technically constitute a recession because a decline in the rate, not the absolute growth. In this theoretical example, it would seem absurd to call a recession after two quarters of 60% and 50% growth, but that's what it would be by your experts' definitions.

    Now apply the same logic to our current quarter of +0.6% GDP growth, forgetting your preconceived notions that 0.6 is a small number. It nonetheless is positive and indicative of growth.
     
    #58     Apr 30, 2008
  9. MAESTRO

    MAESTRO

    I give up. Think what ever you like. We will come back to this in three months.

    P.S.
    When you break does your car still move forward to the red light or it starts to go backwards? Breaking (slowdown, recession etc.) does not necessarily mean going backwards. Can you understand that?
     
    #59     Apr 30, 2008
  10. bdon

    bdon

    But I'm sure the bush administration is giving you the straight number hedgie. Facing being labeled the worst administration ever, you really think this guy wants to put the final nail in his coffin with a recession on his resume.

    If this GDP# was legit, then why is the fed lowering rates again today? They should have left it unchanged and warned of moving it higher to curb inflation, but alas they knew the gdp # was a lie as well.
     
    #60     Apr 30, 2008