Maestro brings up good points and in a very professional manner. Perhaps its not what you want to hear but regardless, he is being civil with you.
Well, I guess it is not up to you to decide who wins and who loses. We shall see it in a few months. I will be happy to remind you this discussion when the truth finally gets into your head.
Maestro does not have empirical data to back up his assertions. End of story. Here is what you need to read over and over again. Print and fold this on a small piece of paper and keep in your wallet and look it up when delusional anxiety strikes. READ THIS TOADY: "Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008 Wednesday April 30, 11:52 am ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Economy limps ahead at a 0.6 percent pace in first quarter, better pace than expected "
So far you have been wrong. Wrong big time, did lot of damage to the SPX and stocks, destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth in your hopelessness. A real recession wouldn't have cause this much harm! There is no forgiveness for that. None.
I'm 9 feet tall, margin of error in this calculation is 4 feet. Below 6 feet I would be considered short, above I would be considerd tall.
If I were you I would refrain myself from making these kind of statements. You have no idea what I have or don't have. I think you should work on your manners a bit and discuss the subject without childish remarks like that. You have a point of view; I disagree with this point of view. I have done my research you believe that you have done yours. Only time will show who is right. Till then please understand that I would not argue if I did not have a good chance of winning the argument.
What is wrong with you? Maestro did nothing but bring up valid points in a non threatening way and all you can do is spout off this nonsense?? You always say you encourage arguements made that don't involve namecalling and insulting and then you get someone who is just trying to show you a different interpretation and you stoop to personal attacks "Big Time" Seriously, how many other boards are you paid to post on? The more you talk, the more you reveal yourself to be a person who is supposed to drum up thread hits.
News is a lagging indicator. The markets have been rallying as of late hence this News. Economists are worthless in determining recessions. They are always late. Even if we make a new high in stocks, they will declare they were right and it was only a correction but it will be a bear trap. The herd will fall off a cliff altogether. Don't you love how even though history has a knack of repeating itself over and over again, people never learn.
The uptick in first-quarter GDP may raise questions about the likelihood that an official recession will be declared. However, there is a common misconception that two consecutive quarters of outright declines in GDP defines a recession. Indeed, this supposed rule was violated in the 2001 experience. Instead, a recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The key for us is that all of the growth in the first quarter was attributable to an inventory swing. Final sales (GDP less inventories) actually declined 0.2% â the first drop since 2002. This means it is likely that the current environment will meet the definition of a recession. âDavid Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley We think that it is likely that GDP will decline in the second quarter. Inventory accumulation will likely turn negative again, while all investment spending categories should keep declining. And government spending growth will likely be softer. The consumer is the wild card. All key drivers of consumer spending are pointing down â employment, real wages, home prices, credit availability â but consumers are now receiving a temporary injection of spending power from the tax rebates. We suspect that these wonât kick in quickly and strongly enough to keep second quarter GDP growth positive. âNigel Gault, Global Insight These patterns should be an eye opener for those counting on a big push in consumer spending from the tax ârebateâ checks now in the mail. Aside from the portion of these funds that will be saved or used to pare down household debt, the lionâs share of what is spent will likely go towards gasoline, food, and household utilities, with little left for discretionary spending. To the extent that rising prices for such items is accounted for in the GDP price index, the impact on real GDP growth will fall far short of the expectations of many analysts. In short, the tax rebates will, collectively, get us a tank of gas and a 20-pound bag of rice at Costco (limit one per customer, please), and will do nothing to prompt sustainable growth in real GDP⦠As to the matter of whether todayâs GDP data rule out a recession, well, if you cling to the common but incorrect interpretation of a recession consisting of two consecutive quarters of contracting real GDP, then probably. If instead you adhere to the NBERâs standards for defining a recession, then certainly not. âRichard F. Moody, Mission Residential The anemic growth in the first quarter of the year was characterized by a modest rate of spending by households on the back of sharp headline costs, falling home prices and the prospects for year of flat income growth in 2008. Not coincidentally, the last time that households increased consumption at such a minimal rate was 2001, the last time the U.S. fell into recession. Moreover, gross private investment went negative across the board, in addition to another outsized decline in residential investment. Looking ahead to [the second quarter], firms will have to burn off the $1.8 billion in inventories sitting on the shelves. We expect that the coming inventory correction will send growth into negative territory, save a truly heroic effort by the U.S. consumer to spend their way out of the current malaise with their $600.00 rebates. The check is in the mail. âJoseph Brusuelas, IDEAglobal "There is no recession. Never was , never will be!" - HedgefundTrader2 Hmmm...who to believe?