There aren't

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by smaranam, Nov 27, 2012.

  1. Intraday, overcoming costs is arguably more important than any indicator that will end up being 50% over the long haul.



    How about using patterns of price as an indicator and understanding when the other side is "stuck" . Even with this, you still must overcome costs.
     
    #11     Nov 27, 2012
  2. Rumor has it, that alpha generation is strongly correlated to background color.

    Edit: And planetary alignment.
     
    #12     Nov 27, 2012
  3. I selected a chart BG which matches my skin tone.
     
    #13     Nov 27, 2012
  4. smaranam

    smaranam

    :D Forget about the colors,all you need is to memorize the things that never change.
     
    #14     Nov 27, 2012
  5. smaranam

    smaranam

    All the so caled patterns have the same 50/50 ratio,be it triangles,h&s,butterflies-flies-bees or whatever...
     
    #15     Nov 27, 2012
  6. Because "somebody has to take your trade". That is, somebody has to be equally convinced that you are WRONG.

    If there were ANY 100% or near 100% decisions, everybody would jump on those but there would be nobody else on the other side. (You don't buy/sell into a vacuum, you know.)

    You need to understand why you think your play is "probably correct", then use a stop to protect your capital when wrong. TA is the art of deducing that which is "probably correct right now".
     
    #16     Nov 27, 2012
  7. The "big boys" will admit that their winning percentage is "52-55%" or less... that's about all you can reasonably expect to achieve. (Don't believe those who brag about 90% winners... if there were such a thing, eventually everybody would know about them and would refuse to take the other side = "no trade".)

    In the marketplace, there has to be both a buyer and seller at each price... otherwise, "no trade". When you buy, you're doing so from somebody who is equally convinced that selling is the correct play. One of you is wrong, of course, but you won't know which until it's too late to make the correct play.
     
    #17     Nov 27, 2012
  8. You MAY be right, and you May be wrong.

    I don't have infinite data "over the long haul " to prove otherwise.


    Another thing, way too much importance is placed on entry only. That's not what creates the so called "edge" as people like to call it. Its a combo of everything in your plan working together.
     
    #18     Nov 27, 2012
  9. May depend on the kind of other side you're looking for, & how hard you look.
     
    #19     Nov 27, 2012
  10. smaranam

    smaranam

    Big boys are too slow.With a couple of contracts to trade I can get 90% of winners.
     
    #20     Nov 27, 2012