Spent a great deal of time reading financial sites and overall market opinions, not because I care but to determine the overall sentiment. Well, there's only one way to say it, too much bearishness out there way too much. Countless Black Swan calls, including breaching 2009 lows. In my experience, when it comes to market indices, the majority is never right and the market ultimately surprises in a big way. Let us see what happens. FoN
In a bear market the majority is bearish. The black swan could be in either direction, beyond your imaginable probability distribution limit.
Maybe, maybe not. I heard the same line of thinking a week ago as well. Right before the Monday "mini Black Swan". Heard the same thing in 2008 as well "too many bears", but it didn't stop the market from collapsing.
I disagree. Seems like every analyst on t.v. is saying it's a minor correction, new year highs on the S&P by year end, buy the dip, etc. etc The only guys who are bearish are the guys who actually trade for a living.
Volatile markets present trading opportunities for both sides there is no reason to worry or even care about the distant future when the market is providing violent swings up and down on a weekly basis.
I've been studying persistence in relation to deep sell-offs and what I am finding is that there is persistence to the moves. That is to say that yes we are oversold and yes by many measures we are ready for a bounce but the persistence factor seems to indicate that when you reach a certain "Reset" level assets continue to sell-off. For instance New Highs are at Zero. Lower than even the 2008 sell-off. Vix has spiked but the Put Call Ratio is already getting into overbought territory. The unwinding of the Puts already happened hence the 100 point ranges. Here's the rub as far as I can tell. Funds are forced to liquidate. Assets get repriced and a domino effect occurs when you get "bigger than normal" sell-offs and that is the explanation for persistence. Yes the pundits would like you to believe that the bottom is in and everything's great but history would suggest we get to 1200 to 1250 and then make a stab at 1000-1050 and bounce around there for longer than one or two days. Then I do believe we bounce unless the consumer locks down or Europe crumbles.
I read zerohedge for fun. All they do is shit on everything. On down days that are saying "duh, of course the world is going to end" and completely mum on the up days. I think there are lots of non-participant bystanders who watch the markets and make bearish statements but don't put their money where their mouth is.