Theories on bitcoins muted volatility?

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by GlobalMacro90, Oct 15, 2022.

  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    full value lol

    imagine if they did that on the sp
     
    #31     Oct 18, 2022
  2. ETJ

    ETJ

    About a 38% realized vol. today - up from about 7 yesterday. Uncertain that it means much at all. Someone needing to create lines of commentary could give you multiple reasons either way.
     
    #32     Oct 18, 2022
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    This is where my logical brain is breaking down. Help me johnarb kenobi, you are my only hope.

    After the last bitcoin is mined, what blocks are there to be solved? The blockchain for Bitcoin is to solve the BTC formula. So once the last BTC is mined, what else is there to do? Are you saying there will always be bitcoin blocks to be solved, after all coins are mined and it is all finished? What are we figuring out in blocks?
     
    #33     Oct 18, 2022
  4. johnarb

    johnarb

    You have some false preconceived notions which are getting in the way of how you understand the Bitcoin blockchain operations

    Before we break it down, do you think you'll still be alive by 2044?

    -----

    The Bitcoin blockchain is a public ledger record of all transactions, senders to recipients and the amount of btc's, plus the amount of btc created, what we call the block reward plus the hashes that secure each block going all the way to 13 years ago when the blockchain started with the genesis block

    The Bitcoin miner that solves the puzzle gets rewarded the block reward plus all the transaction fees for that block. That solution is the hash that secures that block

    I said this already but you may need to read it again, when the last bitcoin is mined, the Bitcoin miner in the year 2140 will just collect transaction fees. Read that again

    ----

    I don't understand why you think the Bitcoin network will stop. it will continue as sender and recipients send and receive btc's... and the Bitcoin miners will collect their reward in the form of transaction fees for solving the puzzle

    I asked you if you would be alive in 2044 because roughly every 4 years the Bitcoin block reward gets cut in half and in 2044, the block reward will be 0.09765 btc which will probably be less than the transaction fees collected at that time so the miner will collect more in transaction fees than the new btc being created and mined



    upload_2022-10-18_20-36-50.png


    upload_2022-10-18_20-41-40.png
     
    #34     Oct 18, 2022
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    The solution to the puzzle is not what you think it is, nor the puzzle is not really a puzzle

    It's based on the difficulty of producing a hash that has many leading 0's, you can see on my previous post

    When the aggregate amount of computing power by all the miners combined also called the network hash is very high, the difficulty is very high also and the number of leading 0's for the winning hash will be many

    I read a person can produce a hash manually every few minutes, a nintendo can produce 30 hashes per minute and an Antminer S9 can produce 9 Trillion hashes per second

    The person or the nintendo or the Antminer S9 can be lucky to produce a hash that meets the current difficulty but the probability favors the Antminer S9

    The Antminer is favored to produce the winning hash, obiviously

    A solo home Bitcoin miner with single S9 miner versus Riot with warehouses of thousands of S9 miners will probably not produce a winning hash quicker
     
    #35     Oct 19, 2022
  6. Ed48

    Ed48

    #36     Oct 20, 2022
  7. R1234

    R1234

    btc vol is low at the moment - I think it's just a cyclical occurrence. I don't think its anything structural. Here's the 50 day rolling volatility of btc:
    upload_2022-10-20_10-20-6.png
     
    #37     Oct 20, 2022
  8. BTC won't crack 19,000......telling.
     
    #38     Oct 20, 2022
    MarkBrown likes this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    You mean on the downside? That 19K is the new support level? Well, I have always maintained that 20K is the support level. OK, it has leaked down into the 19K area this week, but it has done that a few times over the latest month or two, but that 20K is the magnetic pull. BTC wants to hold that line best it can. If my gut is correct, we'll see 22K within a few weeks.
     
    #39     Oct 23, 2022
    MarkBrown likes this.
  10. Of course.
    No doubt.

    BTW: After my contact with the CME Group, they still wouldn't reduce the margin requirement for BTC futures. Typical of a monopoly.
     
    #40     Oct 23, 2022
    MarkBrown likes this.