Then and Now

WISHFUL THINKING....As I was Googling links for the post below, I came across this Eric Schmitt article for the New York Times from last February. http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0228pentagoncontra.htm In retrospect, it is nothing less than mind boggling, and a salutary reminder of what the administration was really telling us nine months ago. Here are some excerpts:

Mr. Wolfowitz...opened a two-front war of words on Capitol Hill, calling the recent estimate by Gen. Eric K. Shinseki of the Army that several hundred thousand troops would be needed in postwar Iraq, "wildly off the mark." Pentagon officials have put the figure closer to 100,000 troops. Mr. Wolfowitz then dismissed articles in several newspapers this week asserting that Pentagon budget specialists put the cost of war and reconstruction at $60 billion to $95 billion in this fiscal year.

....."The idea that it would take several hundred thousand U.S. forces I think is far off the mark," Mr. Rumsfeld said....A spokesman for General Shinseki, Col. Joe Curtin, said today that the general stood by his estimate.

....In his testimony, Mr. Wolfowitz ticked off several reasons why he believed a much smaller coalition peacekeeping force than General Shinseki envisioned would be sufficient to police and rebuild postwar Iraq. He said there was no history of ethnic strife in Iraq, as there was in Bosnia or Kosovo. He said Iraqi civilians would welcome an American-led liberation force that "stayed as long as necessary but left as soon as possible," but would oppose a long-term occupation force. And he said that nations that oppose war with Iraq would likely sign up to help rebuild it. "I would expect that even countries like France will have a strong interest in assisting Iraq in reconstruction," Mr. Wolfowitz said. He added that many Iraqi expatriates would likely return home to help.

....Enlisting countries to help to pay for this war and its aftermath would take more time, he said. "I expect we will get a lot of mitigation, but it will be easier after the fact than before the fact," Mr. Wolfowitz said. Mr. Wolfowitz spent much of the hearing knocking down published estimates of the costs of war and rebuilding, saying the upper range of $95 billion was too high....Moreover, he said such estimates, and speculation that postwar reconstruction costs could climb even higher, ignored the fact that Iraq is a wealthy country, with annual oil exports worth $15 billion to $20 billion. "To assume we're going to pay for it all is just wrong," he said.

100,000 troops should be enough. Occupation costs will be low. Oil exports will amount to $15 billion or more. There's no ethnic strife in Iraq. Iraqis will welcome an American liberation force. Other countries — even France! — will see the light and help out after the war is over.

And these guys are still in charge.
http://www.calpundit.com/archives/002566.html

 

Nov. 5, 2003. 11:18 AM
TIM HARPER
WASHINGTON BUREAU

WASHINGTON—A call from the U.S. Defence Department for volunteers to sit on local draft boards has sparked debate here about whether a nationwide military draft could ultimately be needed to complete Washington's Iraq mission.

A number of analysts said yesterday that while any public suggestion of a draft would be politically suicidal for U.S. President George W. Bush in an election year, he could find himself with few other options if he is returned for a second term and the fighting in Iraq is still raging.

Bush, touring fire-ravaged regions of California yesterday, again vowed troops will never cut and run in Iraq, even as attacks on Americans escalate.

But as debate swirls about the capabilities of the beleaguered U.S. military, the Pentagon is calling for volunteers to "Serve Your Community and the Nation." It says the Selective Service System "wants to hear from men and women in the community who might be willing to serve as members of a local draft board."

If conscription becomes necessary, it says, 2,000 local and appeal boards would need volunteers. The boards would decide who would go to war and who could defer their service in the event of a national call-up to boost the currently all-volunteer military.

"This is significant," said Ned Lebow, a presidential scholar at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire and former professor of strategy at the National War College in Washington.

"What the department of defence is doing is creating the infrastructure to make the draft a viable option should the administration wish to go this route."

He said it is the first public call to reconstitute draft boards since the compulsory draft was abolished in 1973.

Pentagon officials did not return calls seeking comment yesterday.

"I don't think a presidential candidate would seriously propose a draft," said Charles Pena, a senior analyst with the Washington-based Cato Institute. "But an incumbent, safely in for a second term — that might be a different story.

"When you crunch the numbers, you understand why you hear talk about a draft. You only have to look at troop levels to realize we don't have the numbers to do the job in Iraq properly."

The U.S. now has 130,000 troops in Iraq and Pentagon officials, from Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on down, have maintained they do not want or need more troops there.

But with Turkey being the latest country to decline to send troops and even staunch U.S. allies such as Australia and Spain pulling their nationals out of increasingly dangerous Baghdad, the prospect for international help is dim.

When the U.S. fought the first Persian Gulf War in 1991, it had 10 army divisions ready to deploy at home as reinforcements.

Today, there is a single division remaining in the U.S. that could be deployed to Iraq.

 

ahahahahaha

Think of the poetic justice!!!! Draft them young warmongering chickenhawks trolling these boards. Draft them all!!!!!! AHAHAHAHA

goooooooo GW!!!! surely they'd love to see the RPGs face to face

ummmm will they keep posting on ET from Iraq?

 

I mentioned a rumor about Bush and the draft a couple of weeks ago. Looks like there might be something to it. Looks like we need to pole the membership.

 

yeah baby!!! bring the draft back!!!

chickhawks...chickhawks whacha gonna do...whacha gonna do when UncleSam comes fer you? ahahaha

 

a while back, when asked about the draft, in order to get the upper crust to serve in the military, Bob Dole, said it wasn't necessary because rich people would always be able to avoid it.

Now there is a man who really knows what this country is all about.