sorry to resurrect an old thread, but I stumbled across it in a ToS search and thought I could provide a little input for you to tweak your system. Pay attention to volume. I think you could eliminate a lot of your mistakes (based on the one chart you posted) if you looked for volume to confirm movement. Just looking to help...
hey, thanks for resurrecting it. i was just starting to look for this thread to update where i'm at and it was right there for me. i stopped live trading of the ES and looked into trading the SPY as EricP suggested. i was going to paper trade the SPY and do regular chart analysis until i developed a more solid method, but it didn't make sense once i thought about it because i'm short of the minimum equity for pattern daytrading. my ultimate goal is to trade the ES anyway so i began paper trading it this week and am now basically in an analysis phase until i find consistent results. before i started paper trading i printed out my charts from the few weeks of live trading and studied my entries/exits to see where i went wrong. so far it seems to have been helpful as i actually have a firm basis for trades now. that basis admittedly needs refined for all sorts of variations, but it's a more concrete start than i had. volume is an animal which i haven't studied enough. i have ideas about how i think it should relate to price action but what i've watched happen tends to be too inconsistent to match up with my ideas. i definitely plan to spend time studying volume. thanks for your suggestion. Edit: just to clarify, the account statement shows one trade between tuesday and wednesday. i did not watch the market at all tuesday and only for about half an hour yesterday. i will be moving from ohio to south carolina on the 25th and i'm taking a lot of time off until i get down there and situated. and if you're curious why i'm starting with $99,289 it's because i made screwy trades with the initial $100,000 balance when i first opened this account to get used to the platform.
tried posting an update last friday but the forum wasn't working for me. first week of paper trading went well. 5/12 - 5/16 11 total round-trip trades +812.50
action for last two days. tested trading more than one contract on a few trades but it's not a useful focus right now so i'm not doing it anymore. 7 total RT trades so far this week +212.00 post commission i'm not sure for what length of time i'll stick to paper trading. don't know if it's best to set a paper profit goal or a strict certain number of months minimum. perhaps both would be best. this is all off the top of my head, but maybe i'll set a relatively high but attainable minimum goal of $6000 profit after two months. right now i'm shooting for $500 profit per week so adjusting up to $750/week for two months shouldn't be out of the question if my strategies prove fruitful. if by the end of two months i haven't hit $6000 i'll go back to the drawing board once again. i think that should work but i'll put more thought into it. EDIT: +735.50 for last week post commission.
6 RTs today -217.00 post commission i will review my entries on today's chart to see where i went wrong. pretty sure i've got an idea what it was and how to adjust. i'll post a chart later if i get to it.
Wrong conclusion, IMO. A losing day, or a losing trade is not necessarily an indication that you somehow "went wrong." Losses happen, they are part of trading, and should be expected. Do not change a 'winning' strategy simply because you have a losing trade or losing day (or week or month). Please note that I'm not suggesting that you have a successful (or unsuccessful) system, as I have no idea. However, a few losing trades (or losing days) does not prove that adjustments are needed. However, if you see certain things that seem to chronically happen which adversely affect the P&L of your trades, then some 'tweaking' will likely be helpful. Just be sure you have more than one days losses as the basis for making a change to ensure that your change doesn't adversely affect your system's results.
i understand what you're saying. even with the best system an occasional losing day is to be expected. well, what i'm building has the potential to be a successful system, but i'm positive it needs extensive tweaking for the sake of clarity in specific circumstances. what i was doing when i started this journal was akin to playing darts with paintballs while blindfolded. what i'm doing with my current trial is more like playing darts with darts but my eyes are blurry. i've seriously upgraded but i'm still disabled. does that make sense? after looking over my charts i can see i made a few mistakes today because tweaking needs to be done, but my basic theories are still sound. i need to account for specific applications of the rules otherwise i'll continue to get whipsawed more often than is acceptable. to be addressed: default time frame setting exit target setting default stop distance effectively integrating secondary and default chart for better recognition of signals
hello again. none of the aforementioned issues to be addressed has been addressed. i started haphazardly trading again yesterday as we're finally situated in a new apartment. moving is a big hassle and crazy expensive so next time i hope i can pay someone else to do it for me. by next week i should be back to normal and focusing 100% on trading so i'll be able to post actual charts with my entries/exits, as well as do regular analysis. we're still working out kinks in the new place (a/c wasn't working, just found out last night we have termites, etc.) so i'm not putting enough good time in. quick summation: i attached the account performance for yesterday and today. my main reversal setups are working well, but i'm starting to test out some theories for continuation trades that don't work yet. yesterday was filled with those and today i tried one in the morning. i went back to basics this afternoon and it worked out. 6/2 - 6/3: 7 total round-trip trades +363.50 post commission for the two weeks, two days of my sim trial for which i have traded since 5/12/08: 39 total round-trip trades 24 positive 15 negative +1275.50 post commission to be on track for $6000 profit target after 8 weeks: +1800.00 -524.50 off pace
after reviewing today's chart i see my entries were generally good, but my exit execution is poor. was scared out of a few trades that ultimately moved the way the charts said they would. would have traded a lot less and made a lot more had i not gone soft. overall a good day profit-wise, but i need to get better at sticking with trades rather than running scared with .5 point over and over again. btw, i doubt i would have gotten some of these fills had i been trading live. 6/4: 9 round trips +299.50 post commission profit for 2 weeks, 3 days of sim trading: +1575.00 -375.00 off pace i'm not graphically inclined so if there's a better way to notate charts, please let me know.