50% winrate at 3.81 avg.win/avg.loss ratio....I am trying to find out what is wrong...this may take some time.
If a trader believes that the realization of a life improving discovery is a gift from God...why would he share it? It is not his to share. I can share some wisdom that's all...but what I trade is private. ET is not getting a Journal. Es
qlai, M1... I have not traded it...Just applied a battery of selected time slices to stress it...I use this to benchmark something that I would like to pursue...that's all do not read anything else into this. I do not get excited. There is something wrong that's all...I will find it...I am expert in finding what is wrong...sigh Es P.S. Who needs backtesting? P.s. I save a lot of time with this technique of benchmarking. If it passes my smell test then I put it on my list. This is on the top of my list by far as it so so strong. I am scanning hundreds of systems in the trading library at Tradingview...and no not the ones at the top. There are unknown codes over there that are overlooked..just use the search tool to uncover them. Reminds me of my MT4 days but with Futures now.
The thing with low win rates, as long as the traders stays persistent, it is hard to get the win rate much lower than 30% - the best traders can just about break even or even make a bit of profit with that win rate & when conditions improve & their win rates increase they will kill it. Most of the real deal pros doing this for a living report a small # of trades makes the lions shares of their gains. The rest of the time is grinding out small gains & losses - treading water. Novices expecting a linear like daily return will be disappointed. I listened to chat with traders while going over my charts & found this, nice to see a day trader not pitching pure fantasy. "I don't think you can consistently be a winning trader if you're banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time." Bill Lipschutz
So what does this all mean and how does it apply to this thread? I expect from a system that I am testing that is so damn strong on paper will be tradeable manually. It's a good place to start from. This is why I mentioned it here. It is not the subject of this thread as the opening post covered a lot. I have many systems on the radar and I mentioned a strong one to illustrate how to expect. After so many failures one just naturally understands trading. Please read all of this thread as I feel it is important. I am glad it is archived in ET. I can refer traders to it. Thank you to the other contributors here. I am thrilled with 30-40% winrate as long as the Avg Win/Loss Ratio can support it. The secret sauce is money management. When to increase contracts and the traders ability to rank set ups. Thank You for reading. ElectricBeingRealisticSavant
You know...If you enter with an indicator one can exit with decisions designed from MAE or MFE studies. Indicators can be one-sided for entries, exits or confirmation....they do not need to be the end-all. ES