The Europeans keep giving them money. Sooner or later they'll get tired of that and we'll get the restructure. Current speculation is about a 40% haircut. But who knows how the negotiations will play out.
Yep, bloomberg confirmed and CDS are exploding... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750 I like trading 6E but I might just hang out for awhile and see what shakes out... I liked JPM in the low 30's but now I may hope for 16-20 and just hedge the meager holdings I have left. I hate looking at options right now though, vol is way out of hand. But I don't want to get entirely out of my positions either. Curious to see how others are positioning themselves.
Also from Bloomberg: There are deadlines to be met now, not in 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...lt-as-resistance-to-more-aid-intensifies.html The Greeks are very unhappy and the Germans are very unhappy with only the bankers and politicians wanting to keep Greece in the Euro. I think the market is right, this ship is going to sink. Higher alcohol taxes, property surcharges? lol, this ought to be rich
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CGGB1U5:IND 5.895% VALUE: 3,600.055 USD I just want to clarify, when the above link said value: 3,600.055 USD, it means the cost to insure $50M of Greece debt is US$3.6 Million dollar?
1yr bond yield: 127% money making machine. greeks must pay over 100% a year to repay old debt. but they'll never actually pay it back, only the amount of debt rises ad infinitum. when it will reach 100x of the amount debt in 2002, german and french banks will say to its citizens: we must tax you, to give money to the greeks or directly to the banks, so we the financial brains can book 100% returns on brilliant loans and pocket bonuses for the board, directors. thank you for understanding.
No, it means that you need to pay 36% per annum of the notional you want to "insure", and this is for a maturity of 5y (Bloomberg doesn't know yet how to deal with upfront+running but can't blame them as market participants change the way they quote all the time). In the real world, no one will agree for you to pay on a running basis only. At the moment (as in today), if you want to insure 5y Greek debt, you will need to pay 58% of your notional upfront, and 5% per annum.
No, it means the 1 year has fallen to the point where it now yields 127%. The Greek gov't, assuming it pays this back, will pay it back at the original rate on the original issue, whatever that was. You, if you buy this today, would receive 127% at the price currently being offered. Thank you for understanding. (Isn't this place supposed to be Elite? Sheesh.)