To each his own, I'd rather compete with Japan to see who can write the best Haiku, than compete with Akansas to see who can sell the most of them for 99 cents at Wal Mart. Your only hope for success is that people will become stupider and stupider. I guess it just depends on who and what you are bettiing on. I've been to a few of those sales meetings, and I wouldn't bet on the guys who claim it is getting easier.
You should cite the study Trefoil. Cars are not so commoditized as you suggest. Until very recently I owned a Jaguar XKE V-12, two BMWs, a Prosche 911, a GMC Danali, A Cadillac SRS and a late model Cadillac Elderado Convertible. I can assure you they are all different. For my taste, you cannot substitue a German car for a Japanese car or a U.S., Italian or U.K.(India) car. They are not the kind of commodities that sell in atomistic auctions priced according to fungible grades. Apart from the Cars, Germany is an engineering power house. It might not be so popularly visible but they make specialty chemicals, nuclear valves, power generation equipment, power distirbution equipment, oil service production and distribution equipment, hydraullic systems, high tech pumps, compressors, heat exchangers, speciallized steel tubes, nuclear equipment, desalination equipment, cutting edge business application software, computerized controls, scientific instruments, machine tools, robotics, industrial automation equipment, rail road equipment, aerospance componantes and all maner of high value added, highly engineered products that compete on quality and utility. You don't buy this stuff primarily on price and it is not fungilble. Buying cheaper involves a concession on performance, utility or reliabilty.
You clearly have the ability to own more than one. Most people won't and will have to decided which they will buy on a cost performance basis. There are not many people in your position. Most people will buy one luxury car if they are lucky. So if the cost rises by 20% for a Mercedes it might push people into buying a Lexus.
Table 8: China's Top Export Destinations, 2010 ($ billion) Source: PRC General Administration of Customs, China's Customs Statistics Rank Country/region Volume % change over 2009 1 United States 283.3 28.3 2 Hong Kong 218.3 31.3 3 Japan 121.1 23.7 4 South Korea 68.8 28.1 5 Germany 68.0 36.3 6 The Netherlands 49.7 35.5 7 India 40.9 38.0 8 United Kingdom 38.8 24.0 9 Singapore 32.3 7.6 10 Italy 31.1 53.8 Table 9: China's Top Import Suppliers, 2010 ($ billion) Source: PRC General Administration of Customs, China's Customs Statistics Rank Country/region Volume % change over 2009 1 Japan 176.7 35.0 2 South Korea 138.4 35.0 3 Taiwan 115.7 35.0 4 United States 102.0 31.7 5 Germany 74.3 33.4 6 Australia 60.9 54.1 7 Malaysia 50.4 55.9 8 Brazil 38.1 34.7 9 Thailand 33.2 33.3 10 Saudi Arabia 32.8 39.2 germany with high labor costs is running a small surplus with china. the US is running a big deficit with china. this thread is interesting but bottom line is the US the next greece
maybe. The Wall Street Journal ASIA BUSINESS Updated October 9, 2012, 10:34 p.m. ET Japanese Car Sales Plunge Amid China Rage By CHESTER DAWSON And YOSHIO TAKAHASHI [image] Associated Press Protesters overturned a Japanese-made car in Suzhou in September. TOKYOâChinese buyers turned a cold shoulder to Japanese brand car purchases last month, threatening to stall Japanese gains in the world's largest auto market and pressuring their full-year forecasts. All three of Japan's biggest auto makers, Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co., said Tuesday that Chinese sales plummeted in the wake of sometimes violent anti-Japanese protests. Tokyo's decision to buy contested islets in the East China Sea infuriated Beijing, prompting widespread demonstrations and a boycott of car and other brands made in, or by, Japan. image image Reuters A Toyota car with a sticker attached to the rear window reading 'Japanese car, Chinese heart' is seen in Beijing on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, Japanese stocks were down sharply on concern about Japanese car sales in China. Japan's Nikkei was down 1.6%, with Toyota down 2.1%, Nissan down 0.8% and Honda down 1.2%. Toyota's former chairman, Hiroshi Okuda, said on Tuesday he was worried about the business fallout from the political row. "To be frank, we are very puzzled by this tension in Japan and China's relations," Mr. Okuda, president of the state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation, said on the sidelines of Tokyo meetings for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. As a result of those political tensions, the three biggest Japanese car makers temporarily closed their factories in China last month. Production at precrisis levels hasn't resumed, with Nissan saying it is operating plants "flexibly" to respond to changes in demand. [image] While many industry observers said the reduced volumes reflect passions that are likely to be short-lived, there also could be lasting repercussions to the combined 18% share of Chinese auto sales that Japan's big three held in July, before the current tensions began to mount. "Our expectation is the Japanese will eventually claw their way back, but they may never regain the mind share of all the potential customers they might have had," said Janet Lewis, a Hong Kong based analyst for Macquarie Capital Securities. Toyota said it sold 44,100 vehicles in China last month, down 49% from a year earlier and off 41% from August. For the first nine months of the year, Japan's top auto maker said it sold 640,200 vehicles, up 4.6%. But it has all but abandoned the goal of selling one million vehicles in China this year. "We are continuing our efforts to reach the target but considering the circumstances, we realize it may be difficult," Toyota spokesman Dion Corbett said. image image Associated Press A Shenzhen police officer surveyed the aftermath of an August demonstration where Japanese brand cars were attacked. Nissan, Japan's second-largest auto maker by sales, said its sales in China fell to 76,066 vehicles in September, down 35% from a year earlier and down 20% from August. Honda reported a 41% drop from a year earlier to 33,931 vehicles. That was down 41% from August. More Heard: Buying Into the Skid\ How China Downshift Could Hurt Toyota, VW and GM The declines appeared to reflect a distaste for things Japanese by angry Chinese and caution by others, who might not be so politically motivated but feared being targeted in any renewed protests. Last month, a Chinese driver of a Japanese car was left partially paralyzed after being beaten by a mob in Xi'an during demonstrations. On Sina Corp.'s Weibo microblogging platform, people have been debating the risks of purchasing a car from Japan. "Japanese cars are no longer the king of value. People have more alternatives. Even Chinese cars are catching up!" a Weibo user from Shenzhen wrote. "I won't buy a Japanese car unless it is very, very cheap because purchasing a Japanese car is dangerous now," said Zhou Shan, a former department manager at Chinese Internet-search company Baidu Inc. "People would beat not only the Japanese car, but also the car owner, when something goes wrong with Sino-Japan relations again." Celebrity blogger and rally-car driver Han Han last month defended Chinese people who purchased Japanese cars. "Nobody buys a Japanese car thinking they are supporting Japan's claims to Chinese territory," he wrote on Weibo. "Instead, they buy Japanese models because they are affordable, fuel-efficient and easy to repair." The broader impact on China's auto market could be outlined on Wednesday, when a Chinese auto industry association releases overall September sales data. Some buyers have turned to rivals including South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. and sister company Kia Motors Corp., which on Monday posted a combined monthly sales increase of 9.5% over a year earlier, an increase they attributed in part to anti-Japanese sentiment. General Motors Co. posted a more modest 1.7% rise. A continued sales slide in China could also have a negative impact on Japanese auto makers' profit projections since the Chinese market had been a bright spot during the first half because of improved product lineups. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch estimated that operating profit from China accounted for 16% of Honda's earnings, 21% of Toyota's and 25% of Nissan's. Tokyo investors reacted to Tuesday's sales figures by sending shares of Japanese auto makers lower. Honda fell 2.5% to close at Â¥2,361 ($30.14) on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Credit Suisse had downgraded the auto maker to "neutral" from "outperform," citing risks including a prolonged drop in Chinese sales. Shares of Toyota and Nissan shares fell 1.5% to Â¥3,000 and 1.9% to Â¥656, respectively. "Although it is difficult to forecast the scale and duration of boycotts in China, we think the risk of 50% capacity utilization continuing for 12 months is already discounted in the share price," Credit Suisse analyst Issei Takahashi wrote. Chinese sales fell for other Japanese auto makers last month as well. Suzuki Motor Corp. said Tuesday that it sold 16,020 vehicles, down 43% from a year earlier. Mazda Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. last week also reported declines. Mazda sold 13,258 vehicles, off 35% from a year earlier, while Mitsubishi sold 2,340 vehicles, down 63%. One factor that could extend the auto makers' pain: continued rhetoric from Chinese and Japanese politicians. Experts cited China's leadership transition this month and the near-term possibility of elections in Japan as potential grist for the war of words between Asia's two largest economies. The tumbling sales could lead to prolonged production cuts and job cuts at the car markers' factories in China. That would pose a problem for Beijing, which is under pressure to fire up economic growth. Japanese car makers run their plants in China with domestic partners, as do other foreign auto makers, and those plants are operated by Chinese workers. â
Man, the IMF gets all the good weed: Why Austerity May Be Over in Europe http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-austerity-may-over-europe-145559147.html
Once a person or a sovereign thingy borrows too much there's almost nothing that can make much of a difference. The Greek leaders are probably wailing "IT'S OVER, WHY DOESN'T EVERYBODY GET THAT?" in private... They probably can't wait to exit the Euro so they can print their own currency and inflate their way out of debt...
The logic of the world economic and political elites, of course being led by the European economic and political elites, is completely from Alice in Wonderland... There are some sober real world truths that they cannot see becuase of thier hallucinigenic paradigm: 1) You cannot reduce the Debt/GDP ratio in near to medium term by reducing government spending and private investment. This is becuase the denominator of your ratio is GDP and GDP as a metric is the sum of aggregate Government Spending, Investment and Consumption along with net import/exports. You cannot reduce the Debt/GDP when you reduce the government spending componant of GDP and the private investment componant of GDP which of course both have the effect of reducing the Consumption part of the GDP. This comment should not be understood that you don't have to make these reductions, or that you shouldn't make these reductions. It should be understood to explain that when you do this you cannot expect to improve the Debt/GDP ration because you will not have the revenue to materially reduce the Dept numerator and you will materially reduce the GDP denominator. Its just math. You must understand that austerity in the form of reduced government spending and higher taxes discouraging investment and consumption will reduce the GDP. When your numerator reamins static or increases and the denominator is reduced the ratio goes up; not down. Why did any one ever think it would go down? 2) You cannot reduce debt with more debt. It is impossible to create more debt and solve a debt problem where there is no way to increase income. You can only pay off debt with income. Debt can only be a positive tool if it is invested directy in an asset in such a way as to increase the future income of the asset and so pay off the debt. Debt is positive if the cost of the debt is less than they increase in the earnings of the asseet that you invest the debt in. When you incur debt to spend the money on consumption or to sustain current welfare spending you do not increase future income to pay the debt back and you will not be able to pay the debt back. 3) Austerity is not and never was a plan for growth. Austerity cannot be understood to be a plan at all. Austerity is a result; not a choice. Austerity is forced on you when you borrow too much money and you do not invest it in things that can pay it back. Austerity comes when you can't pay back your debt and your creditors will no longer fund you. It is a confusion to call it a plan or to suggest that you can avoid it and still not pay your debts. It is not a policy direction that can be changed; it is the result of a failure to grow in the context of borrowing more money than you can pay back with current income flows. This should all be obvious to anyone but a hooka smoking caterpiller.