in the past 2/3 years I have learnt not to believe to anything written in english about the eurozone and the euro
At the largest global hedge fund conference in Monaco - GAIM International - 95 % of "asset managers" were convinced Greece will default on its payments. When I saw so many on the same side of the "trade", I had to buy some Greek bonds. Not that much of course, but simply to underpin my 20 years trading experience.
Buy the rumor...sell the news? This is oooold news!! Dont't worry, Greece will NOT default anytime soon!! Instead, they might have SD (selective default) which will be to he people's expense. This is expected, part of the plan, and mostly priced-in already
Greek debt is mostly covered by Greek law. They could decide, tomorrow, to restructure the whole thing and no one would have a legal say in it. All the stuff going on until now is happening because Greece has voluntarily decided it wants to stay in the euro. Well, the people running it have. However, they have hired Cleary Gottleib, a New York law firm, to advise them on their next moves. To quote: Of course, there's also Portugal, and up there in the major leagues, Spain and then Italy. The markets have finally figured out the banks are the ones who've really been getting bailed out all along, anyway. Things are getting more and more dicey out there...
Unsustainable, why are markets crashing now and not in 2014. Their not going to pay and banks are levered to gills. Selective default is interesting, but how much are they levered to what will be defaulted? Is it a question of some b.s. greek worthless bonds or a question of leverage? Why is 500 freakin billion ....not enough.........Its all screwed right now, not whenever they are scheduled to default. Markets will not wait for them to admit they can't pay. Everyone is running right now, and Germany will not agree to Euro QE, they want it fixed. Your time table is not inline with markets. I have no idea if news this weekend is coming, but we can all see 2014 is nothing, its hitting the fan right now.
Does it really matter today or the next week? The fact of the matter is that it's inevitable this is going to happen at this point.