I thought i would start this thread for people to discuss how the mkt acted during the week, and whats expected next week...i.e. Monday morning. I guess what makes this thread a little different is that the idea is to discuss and review the mkt action over the week-end. I guess i'd start off by saying that based on current support and resistance levels, S&P will stay in a choppy but fairly small range for the entire week ahead. And please... no.." No one knows what the mkt will do next" or "trade whats there at the time"........ this is just small coffee talk... no big whoop.
A close above 1315 SP Cash or some follow thorough after a huge up-day will make me look for opportunities from the long-side. Right now I'd rather sell at resistance than buy at support. I think we are just getting started for a nice move down.
I love 100% up room to go$$$ and its so pretty when market not allowed to go down and follow thru selling is banned....
interesting observation. Although i think mkt wont do much next week... im leaning towards a short position myself. Mkt just not coiling up and geting ready to explode up.... too loose.... and sloppy for a break-out..... and now Nasdaq falling apart here. If we do have a huge break-out....... then i wont believe it and will short it every step up... cause i like pain
Well the S&P has been in an obvious range. I have attached a chart using daily candles so we can have a basic understanding of what that market has done over the year. What may help is to notice how this market has tended to move from one trading range to the next. What this means is that investors (and institutions) have been cautious, putting money to work through IRA's and 401K's and then pulling money out, perhaps to finance real estate purchases. The "pulling money out" phases have not been severe as evidenced by the general upward trend. This trend is supported by local economies that have continued to grow giving the investor confidence to spend. The pullbacks indicate that the investor is unconvinced that the market is the place to put money to work. Rising interest rates and a slowing real estate market are going to dictate the rest of the story.
Now I have attached a chart using 60 min candles. Here you can see more clearly the extent of the most recent range. In my opinion, we are seeing local effects of crude/gas prices and the concern for international events like Iran's nuclear program, the continued discontent with the course of the war in Iraq, and domestic problems including immigration. Clearly investors are uncertain and institutions are doing what they always do, moving the markets back and forth hoping to generate interest or take advantage of news "events".
Here is a chart using 5 min candles. Again you can see how the market has "jumped" from one range to another. This means that at some point we are likely to see a quick impulse move up or down, probably depending on the local news events. Those who know how to play defense while maintaining a presence in the market will be able to make a dollar here. When a strong move does come, those who have got "snake bitten" in the past will be watching it happen. My own solution is to make sure to take all valid signals in either direction on small size, looking to add on consolidations. If I see price failing, I can always close out and start the process again. How do you decide where to add or take off size? I use daily, weekly and monthly pivots, previous day's high, low and close as my short term "lines in the sand"
Thanks steve for your posts and charts.... very informative indeed. Not only did i get snake bitten last week, i got squeezed by a 30 ft anaconda...... still, must be ready to take advantage when the move comes. But its hard... when in the back of your mind you have a downward bias, but the mkts creep up. I think 1315 is a key level... if we close Monday below that... it may set up some move to the down side.... but the real level im looking at is 1310.