Yeah, it's d-day for banks this week and everyone knows that. It makes sense to Fall and is logical but I expect a curveball again and again. I'm pretty sure to open the week Monday, will be up. Why because can you imagine all the money that is short over the weekend who have breathing room carrying over to Monday. Would be nice and easy to clean up on a gap down. It's possible but I expect yet another sucker rally whether short covering or an unforseen catalyst. I want a 1987 crash too sometimes and 10-20% index drop but just doesn't happen in this day and age. Market just continues to get a lift when it should make sense to FULLY capitulate. These assholes would cut the rate to 0% to prevent it. Still another rally to sell forthcoming.... Whatever, its just best to trade both ends.
okay...what will make the market go up this week...I would say 99% chance we see the SPX, DOW down by Friday...this week is like a 'mindfield'...comments
IMO the market has been appearing to go up going up for a number of reasons, most of them normal market dynamics/cuonter reactions to where we are and what has happened. It is actually not rallying, or going up but rather making an upleg rather than a reversal IMHO. The market defenders have made their stand at what seems to be at a natural support level which makes any 75BP rate cut, defense, or natural buying more effective. e.g QQQQ seems to be on a trendline - the refollowing of that trendline will later be seen as the upleg of a 'measured move' Target for QQQ would be around 34-5 The market is heavily short with many recent shorts which are sensitive to upward movement/squeezes. There is a natural bounce from panic selling greatly aided by rate cuts which act directly on fundamental valuation models and in articular directly on the book value derived financials valuations. Financials remain as important index constituents. Apparent non financials such as HOG are actually finance companies and are thus positively affected. HD seems to be another example, as are the autos such as F most likely. Sell the auto at a loss to make money on the financing - this was F's model for years. Eventually rate cuts stop working, often before zero is hit. Selling pressure is light due to the market by accident or design performing the equivelent of a stock manipulators "lock in" manouvre on all the 401k people. hedge fund gating and outright halting of withdrawals are another factor. Because we are working a range there is vacum above the support level and below resistence with thin offers making upmoves within that range easy as sellers have already sold but the bids below suport are thick as that area has not really been worked - only touched in the quick two panic sell offs. The early buyer crowd are being greatly encouraged to come in and take stock off the hands of people who need liquidity to get out of their ositions by a massive mass "we are at bottom" media blitz and propaganda campaign. Liquidty is finding its way into the market from i-banks being allowed to suck at the Fed teat. In addition to a bankruptcy reventon of brokers this is also a backdoor liquidity bailout of Hedgefunds via prime brokerage margin lending. I think we have another leg down, maybe as much as 1- 2 years of grinding bear markets before inflation offets poor fundamentals and the market does a Zimbabwe as the nominally priced stock market offers some protection from inflation. Eventually inflation will take this market up in nominal terms. Holes in my arguments, anybody? More...............
Agreed. Things are going to get really bad. The market wants the truth but in all honesty the market cant handle the truth. The truth would cause a huge panic. I hear forecast of a recovery second half of 08. I hope this plays out. Not for the stock markets sake but for the American economy. the real killer is how american middle class is going to suffer. on Cnbc they talk about how the rich need to pay their fair share but in all honesty the big dogs are taken care of. Its the fine print that states how the government considers you rich if your combined income was over 150k. if you dont get a stimulus package guess where you place. how is making a combined income of 150k make you rich? 4 airlines gone in a week...BSC....??..GE...??? thats not a sign of prosporous times ahead. i remember watching how bone pickens was afraid of how we are transfering so much wealth to the middle east. i really dont know how this plays out in the next 20 years. in all due respect its the american peoples fault. most people dont have a clue about the economics of everything going on. we have done nothing to stop the government from promoting their own agenda. In fact i dont know if their is much we can do as an average joe. a favorite quote of mine which is the closest to the truth you can ever hear is " who ever holds the money, holds the power." That is a powerful quote. sorry if im off topic just thought id share my opinion to bbcmoneys quote. Great short term trading lays ahead im glad i have the opportunity to learn and trade the toughest market at such a young age. Good trading to all.
The world is ending .. The Titanic is sinking Its all over now... Recession is coming Housing will never come back... Isn't this what has been speculated for the last 3 months without anything serious happening? How wrong you have been for the last 3 months? Lots of doom and gloom and pessimism and it did nothing for you! SPX can only go to 1270 and it will stop on a dime. Feds and Treasury will step in and hijack it back to 1350. Just watch it. The game is rigged to the upside. It always has been dumbass.
Hey now, I take exception to that. We did not want Bush in office...he stole the election. Don't you remember? Hanging chads in Florida in 2000. He also ran on a platform of no nation building. In 2004, they cheated on the Ohio ballots. Exit polls, which have and continue to be reliable, showed he clearly lost Ohio. But the final tally had him win. He cheated. No question. He should be in prison for crimes against the people of America.
Come all you young fellas, come listen by me. Don't you go for no soldier, don't you join no army. For the dove she will leave you and the raven will come. And death will come marching at the beat of the drum.
what`s special about the 15th and 8th? tax days are usually up according to traders almanac? May 8th, is that may day? what is the significance with that day? I know this the first real day of the 2nd qtr both last year and this year were mutual fund buying 300 plus days, i will be watching for confirmation next year, but that was just a one way market on those days dow 30 stayed blue fom open til close, setting new daily highs, funny as hell!