The weather is completely random

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Smart Money, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Weather can not be predicted. It is completely random. The meteorologist who successfully predicts the weather more than half the time has just had a string of luck. People who sign up for weather services are suckers. Same with people who watch the weather on the evening news. They should just arrange their affairs to have protection in all environments...always carry and umbrella and keep a rain barrel in case of drought.
  2. What rubbish.

    We had a storm here last night. I predicted this from looking at the web weather radar which showed storms moving from the west. As did nearly every other person who looked at the radar.

    The pattern occurs over and over again in the summer months here. You don't even need to be a weather forecaster. Hot humid days => probable storm.
  3. I know you'd like to believe that, but have you considered that this is just selective memory? It rained, and so you thought back on it and selectively remembered the humidity? Perhaps one can look at a weather radar and see whatever pattern they want to see and then use selective memory to reinforce it? And following trends of storm patterns moving from the west can not work because a trend is just a continuation of random behavior that can reverse itself at any time. A room full of monkeys could eventually type all of Shakespeare's works...trends are just elongated random behavior. Rubbish Indeed!

  4. Well, you're the expert.
  5. Is this the Efficient Weather Hypothesis? :cool:
  6. You have to think it might all be random when you consider the silly correlations between irrelevant events and the stock market, such as whether the Yankees win the World Series. When they win, the market goes up by 10% on average the next year, and when they lose it goes down 13%. Now, what the hell do the Yankees have to do with the DJIA, one wonders. Yet, trading on this basis would stand one in better stead than many other far more plausible strategies. This sort of observation just gives one pause to think that maybe it is all B.S., and the market is really just one long random walk. I don't personally buy that at all, and I think that view is just a pessimistic, defeatist, nihilistic form of giving up. Clearly, there are ways to predict what's going to come next and to do so with consistent success, and it's all a question of whether trader A is better in his analysis than trader B on the other side of the trade. Either that, or trader A has deeper pockets and more patience than trade B on the other side. Trading is ultimately war, and the best general with the best forces at his disposal is going to win.
  7. I'll tell you what we DON'T have, is global warming. The earth has been cooling since '98. And at 5 am, it's 38 degrees here in West Point, Mississippi. This global warming thing is a big fraud!
  8. FWIW, quite some time ago (at least 30 years by now) there was an interesting challenge/contest related to predicting the weather. It turns out that one of the best ways to predict the weather is to just say that tomorrows weather is going to be like todays. If only the markets were so easy.
  9. No. They couldn't. I'd like to know who came up with that idea, and why people keep perpetuating the myth without questioning it. Just like numbers, we can string together letters for an infinity. The myth assumes the monkeys would eventually type every possible outcome which, just like counting to infinity, is not possible. A universe full of 10 to the 60th power of monkeys could type for a 10 to the 100th power of years and still be no closer to typing an infinite amount of possibilities.

    I really was wondering where the quote began, so I did a search. Apparently it started here: Émile Borel’s essay — “Mécanique Statistique et Irréversibilité” I remember Borel sets and algebra from my old textbooks but haven't thought about it much since then, and I remember some of his work on game theory. Now I wonder what sort of qualifiers were in the original work and if the quote was taken out of context.

    I'm starting to think a room full of monkeys typing for an infinite amount of years still wouldn't touch on every subject found on Wiki.
  10. Without enough data, EVERYTHING is random. 1000 years ago the gods controlled the weather and it was impossible to know what kind of mood they would be in tomorrow or any other day. 1000 years from now we might be able to kill the butterfly that flapped its wings in Japan and started the hurricane season in the Western hemisphere before it could do any damage. Are you suggesting it is impossible to collect enough data on the weather to accurately predict an outcome (and using it as a metaphor for the market)?

    I propose if you have enough data, EVERYTHING is predictable. If I knew every single variable before I threw those dice in Las Vegas, I'd come home a couple hundred thousand dollars richer every weekend.
    #10     Nov 6, 2009