The way the government 'games' the jobs data

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by ByLoSellHi, Aug 6, 2009.

  1. This is so laughable.

    550,000 initial claims, versus expectation of 580,000, which was obviously gamed high so they couldn't miss.

    550,000 initial claims is extremely bad.

    On top of that, continuing claims GREW to 6.9 million.

    Moreover, "when emergency extensions of unemployment are included, the total rolls climbed to a record 9.35 million for the week ending July 18, the most recent data available. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states."

    On top of that, the real unemployment rate is at least 16% in the United States, and rising.

    The way the government games these numbers, and plays right into the financial community's lap, is quite idiotic.

    Everything is designed to try and suck retail money into equity markets, at one of the very worst times for that to occur in American History.

    People who got a piece of this incredible and artificial rally should praise their G-d and cash out and not look back.

    Winter is coming. And it will be extreme in its bitter cold and length.
  2. TheOnion should run an article calling the unemployment rate a bubble. Or Kudlow...

    <IMG SRC=>

    From 4.5% to a straight shot to 10. Thats incredible.
  3. achilles28


    Its true. They always set expectations much worse than reasonable to "beat" expectations with a shitty number.

    This can only fool the market for so long..
  4. It is more liek 20% if you include those give up looking (I know a number) and those working part-time or doing old jobs here and there. These workers are are not counted as unemployed.
  5. jnorty


    Its getting very tough to stand by and accept the total fraud wall street has pulled this qtr with the huge low balling of earnings so every company can beat. an example is yesterday with csco. ests of 29 versus 41 which was total lowball and they still barley beat and wouldn't commit to a turn around yet wall street put words in there mouth and said things were better. this has been going all all qtr and sickens me. go look at the 90 day back ests on yhoo for the top 100 co's. MANY OF THE EST'S 90 DAYS AGO ON THESE CO'S WERE HIGHER THAN THE EST'S BEFORE EARNINGS. the mkt had run 45% and econ #'s had turned so i ask you how in the nell did analysts not raise the est's huge? how is this not fraud? why is the sec not investigating the collusion between wall streert and co's to purposely keep est's low so co's can beat them?wall street should not be allowed to publish earnings ests as they have a vested interest for co's to beat them so they get banking business and there clients make money on the stock
  6. I'm sure you're familiar with the expression, "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

    Arguing about this manipulation can give posters a sense of validation (because for the most part it is true); but the reality is you need to bet based upon "HOW" the market reacts to news, not how it "SHOULD" react to news.

    Not trying to boast or be arrogant here, but I've been down this road, and it's a waste of energy. Everyone and his brother knows the numbers are gamed, fabricated, and engineered by now. What's relevant is how do you deal with that in a manner that is beneficial to you.

    Nothing personal to you, but the comment is aimed at the thread in general.

    P.S. If you want to spend your time studying how the market stats are manipulated, do a google on CB J willie. He's quite adept at statistics, and will keep you entertained with witty facts -- not necessarily wealthier, unfortunately.

    "So another truism, -- "Don't fight the tape" -- comes to mind. It is as relevant now as it was in October 2008 -- only the direction of the market is different."
  7. good info guys, Hey BuyLo, How did u get ur real rate of 16%? Is that just a guess?
  8. If the recession is over as everyone at Wall Street and DC is reporting lthen why is Fannie May increasing reserves for more mortgage losses?

    The company increased reserves for future credit losses to $55.1 billion last quarter from $41.7 billion in the previous quarter.
  9. Look closer at the number of people went to extended unemp benefits. Add these to this headline number and you will see it is getting much worse.
    #10     Aug 6, 2009