The world's war on coal is proving a boon for its biggest producers - at least for now. BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Glencore are generating the highest profits in years from their coal mines. Income for the 37 coal producers tracked in a Bloomberg Intelligence index was the highest in six years.........more....... https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...gest-miners-a-lot-richer-20180503-p4zd0e.html
%% NOT a prediction, trends may get better for coal; nat gas may keep it from becoming a runaway trend.
Wow. Talk about "Fake News." "One reason for the output slide is the lack of coal-industry financing." "The pressure on the investment industry to reduce the amount of capital that we make available to the coal industry is increasing," said Nick Stansbury, a fund manager at Legal & General Group, the UK's largest manager of pension assets. "That will lead to this industry facing a rising cost of capital." Aside from its headline, the article is rightly full of observations that point to a global dis-investment. Boon? No. That's like pointing to a $300 buggy whip and concluding the horse-and-carriage is coming back. Bloomberg blows.
You normally see people saying "Bloomberg sucks", but maybe it sucks and blows (I had a vacuum cleaner like that, once)?
I'm not sure I understand what the fake part is. The piece simply reported on the temporary anomaly ("for now") resulting from the reduced supply stemming from divestment. So prices are increasing ("for now") because supply is shrinking faster than demand. That doesn't change the fact that coal is on a downward spiral, and no one suggested otherwise.
I agree. Were coal price to rise too much, that becomes further a disincentive. The problems with coal other than the polution aspects are, (1) any powerstation for example running coal needs to set aside a lot of land for stockpile storage and (2) maintenance costs on equipment are high due to the abrasive nature of the material, grit gets into everything. Then also fire hazards are another consideration.
Resources boom set to continue, says RBA The fast-growing Indian middle class will help ensure Australia's resource industry continues to grow for decades to come, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia. While environmentalists who want to end coal-mining have painted a grim picture of the Australian resources sector, the overall picture was positive. RBA's head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said while there will be challenges from the phasing out of some older coal-fired power stations, there would be opportunities in the structural change. "The industrialisation and urbanisation of large emerging economies will continue to boost demand for commodities," she said. "Governments' commitments to significantly reduce carbon emissions are likely to benefit some parts of the resources sector, but provide challenges to others. At the same time, the economy will be constantly responding to the effects of technological change." Speaking at a mining conference in Western Australia on Wednesday, Ms Heath said mining investment was likely to pick up gradually over the next year. "Resources exports are also expected to contribute to GDP growth before plateauing to a new, higher level," she said. Ms Heath said high demand for high quality iron ore and metallurgical coal (used to make steel), especially from India and China, would continue to drive Australia's resources boom. "Given current population growth projections, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world by 2030," Ms Heath said. "India's demand for steel will also be boosted by an increase in urbanisation because people moving to cities need somewhere to live and infrastructure to support their daily activities. "There is also significant scope for the steel intensity of the Indian economy to increase." Ms Heath said while the Indian government had a goal to triple steel production to about 300 million tonnes by 2030, there would still be growing demand for Australian coking coal, which is of a higher quality than India's domestic supply. China's rates of urbanisation and industrialisation may slow as its economy matures, but demand for steel in the manufacturing sector is expected to hold up. The fast-growing Indian middle class will help ensure Australia's resource industry continues to grow for decades to come, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA's head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said the prospects for the resources sector was strong. Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg While environmentalists who want to end coal-mining have painted a grim picture of the Australian resources sector, the overall picture was positive. RBA's head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said while there will be challenges from the phasing out of some older coal-fired power stations, there would be opportunities in the structural change. "The industrialisation and urbanisation of large emerging economies will continue to boost demand for commodities," she said. "Governments' commitments to significantly reduce carbon emissions are likely to benefit some parts of the resources sector, but provide challenges to others. At the same time, the economy will be constantly responding to the effects of technological change." Speaking at a mining conference in Western Australia on Wednesday, Ms Heath said mining investment was likely to pick up gradually over the next year. "Resources exports are also expected to contribute to GDP growth before plateauing to a new, higher level," she said. Ms Heath said high demand for high quality iron ore and metallurgical coal (used to make steel), especially from India and China, would continue to drive Australia's resources boom. "Given current population growth projections, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world by 2030," Ms Heath said. "India's demand for steel will also be boosted by an increase in urbanisation because people moving to cities need somewhere to live and infrastructure to support their daily activities. "There is also significant scope for the steel intensity of the Indian economy to increase." Ms Heath said while the Indian government had a goal to triple steel production to about 300 million tonnes by 2030, there would still be growing demand for Australian coking coal, which is of a higher quality than India's domestic supply. China's rates of urbanisation and industrialisation may slow as its economy matures, but demand for steel in the manufacturing sector is expected to hold up. The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies conference heard the resources sector accounts for about 20 per cent of business investment and almost 60 per cent of Australia's exports. Ms Heath said while thermal coal is one of Australia's largest energy-related exports, the push to lower-emissions power sources could see exports fall. But Australia's burgeoning LNG industry was expected to step in as replacment fuel. Ms Heath said the phasing out of coal-fired power would be "relatively gradual" and the effect on annual GDP growth would be small, especially if the offsetting effect of increased demand for LNP or inputs into renewable energy generation were taken into account. She admitted some local communities would be hardest hit by the exit of coal-fired power, but she believed the Australian economy would be able to adapt. "Australia has experienced many structural changes where the effects on local communities have been much greater than the effects on the economy as a whole," she said. "At the same time, a lot has been done over the past 50 years to improve the ability of the economy to adapt to structural change." She said the adaption of the mining workforce, especially to automation, would be crucial to the transition, including having IT skills. "There is clearly a change in the nature of the work and the skills required," she said. https://www.afr.com/business/energy/resources-boom-set-to-continue-says-rba-20190605-p51uom