Thur session June 28 at 1:25pm the price is hanging on the 61 like a kid on monkey bars. what it does tho if the C is on the 61 is form an AB base and potentially, a small rally, but possibly lots of sideways movement during the next 2 sessions until the ECB summit is concluded and whatever statements made and then looking at the D, wonder if the price will just drift on down to the 85 which is around the 1.2335 , then again next week to another lower 85 around 1.2322 , which at that week's Friday forms an AB on the D, although the price could just as well drop all the way down by this Friday and then again, that D AB could just be part of a correction prior to more Down ~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri session June 29 the price didn't hit or close on any fibo level of any of my charts, but did hit various chnl lines at the bottom, so I suppose that's good enough the rally's already started and I expect it to continue thru this session and C up for the day and week, but then I'm sometimes overly optimistic if the price does go up, it might only go as far as the 61 1.2463 , 1.2490 or all the way up to the gap line/50 around 1.2520 , and depending on what news is released during the rths, might break that 1.2560 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sunday for Mon session Jul 2 this will be my last post for a while the journal has done its job again, helping me make additional steps forward now I want to implement what I've learnt without the distraction of updating the journal there's 2 news events this week to take note of: will the ECB drop the EU rate from 1% to 0.75% , lower ? Thursday 8:30am EST NFP on Friday 8:30am EST, consensus 90K and range of 35K - 167K which is quite a spread, plus whatever 'revision' might be announced I don't expect the price to stay up until the end of the week but top during this session price targets: 1.2836 , 1.2910 , 1.30 then there's not going higher than the recent highs, around 1.2740 , since I consider the price formation these last few weeks a correction that will be completed today breakdown levels are around 1.2290 then 1.2195 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sunday July 8 for the Week of July 13/12 it's difficult now getting much useful info from the D chart. the price has entered that zone where not that far away is 1.1875 the next downside target, and then the 'last' support area around 1.1700-1.1650 on the W the price stopped on an ml, the same one the price closed on last w of May and rallied from; but the price on both the D and M is below their mls, so while some sort of correction might be expected, there isn't much to suggest one yet, tho I have to mention that that formation looks like it might be a base. continued Downside between 2008 and 2010 the $ formation appeared to be a correction suggesting the price might drop and break below .71 . by mid 2011 the $ based, since rallying and breaking thru the last outer down line of one set of chnls and about to do the same on the first of the last two that have relevance. up chnls have the price below the ml and the breakthru area is around .855-86 , then resistance levels up to .925 before the $ goes into free space and breaking the last outer chnl line, into the stratosphere Oanda no longer offers 24/7 trading: http://www.forexcrunch.com/oanda-closes-weekend-trading/ alternate source for weekend quotes: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD gone quiet hasn't it ECB President Mario Draghi testifies at the European Parliament tomorrow, does he or questions result in mis-speaks ? then on Thursday the monthly ECB Bulletin in between on Wednesday is the release of the US FOMC Minutes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sunday July 15 for the Week of July 20/12 the price has played with the 50 , closing on it on Wed - 1.2238 , below it Thur and just above it Fri at 1.2248 . the XE.com site shows the current price 1:45pm pst at 1.2273 the likelyhood now is that the price will continue to rally thru this week and reach the 61 R fibo level of 1.2490 , possibly higher to the first gap line at 1.2519 , and possibly continuing the rally into next week, possibly, breaking the 1.26s to form another up leg in this correction that began at the beginning of May there's the possibility of the rally lasting into August and the NFP as a TT turning point a slower price rally to the 1.27s reached, completing the correction formation scenario and then down from there ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Friday July 20/12 won't be updating again may explain at a later date ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ok, let us know. thank you. Hope it's not because of little follow-up or some wrong scenario analysis. Hope you are fine.
hi Bernard. no, I'm fine, and not withstanding last week's post, I probably shouldn't have started posting weekly but like to post. later
I didn't realize there was an early closing today I'd 2 trades going, Sell 1 6E at 1.3329 and Sell 1 M6E at 1.3329 . the 6E trade was a daytrade and depending where the price closed, the M6E might have remained open at 1:12pm pst the 6E trade was closed 'externally' by AMP because there wasn't sufficient margin to hold the trade overnight. after some time, one of the AMP reps told me the market had an early closing, also the reason NT wasn't updating. 'oh'. the Econoday calendar usually states there's an early closing but didn't this week but bottom line, I've only myself to blame. the trade made 7 pips but I'll be paying AMP $25 for closing the trade + the comm. not sure if Globex is open for trading on Monday, but had I known about the holiday I'd have closed the M6E since while this is a Days-to-Days-to-Weeks - DDW - trade, I wouldn't have left it open with a no Globex trading day on Monday and spot running wherever it wants so, not a particularly auspicious re-start to the journal I don't plan on writing a daily update as I did before; what I will be doing is posting the M6E trades after I've entered them. these trades are intended as BuyandHold or DDWs in my lexicon, but I may trade the corrections if I'm awake at the time and able to take advantage of such trades the other addition is to Close the trade and wait out a correction, re-entering the trade in the direction of the trend after the correction is judged to be complete M6E $12,500 contract ~ daytrade: $100 ~ overnight: $330 ~ rt comm: $1.99 (?) via AMP I was thinking/expecting for the price to run down to into the 1.3270s, maybe the 1.3250s, however it's likely (I hope if there's no Glbx trading Monday) that that won't happen until Tuesday my analysis is that leg 3 of a correction is going on rather than the Mon to Thur/Fri top being a reversal formation the price down to the '1.3250s' , the trade will be a Buy with a target in the 1.3620s breaking Wed's LL of 1.3256 may mean the Sell is still on, plus a re-analysis I may also post daytrade profits/losses the DDW trading is something I haven't done before, not really sure why I started today and in the middle of a trend, except to say it may have to do with resolving something I'd been thinking about, as well as thinking about re-starting these posts once I started the M6E DDW trades, as I now have . . .