Thur session May 24 an Up day ? second sdc added to the D and the price currently below the 1.26067 76 may climb up to and thru the 1.26772 76 hitting the outer sdc, yesterday's LL stopping at the ml but expecting Friday may be Down with new lows, this week on the W the price pene- trated the ml of 2 sdcs with the price currently sitting on it and the 76s small dip in JCs ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ will post a pdf of trades on the weekend
Fri session May 25 did I get it arse backwards yesterday ? yesterday's D L didn't penetrate the ml and the current new spot bar's slightly up and closer to the right inner sdc line, so will the price at least go to the 1.26067 level ? it ought to pop it and hit the right outer sdc line . . . too optimistic ? SIFMA are recommending an early close, 2pm est, not sure if that'll happen and result in a quiet day happy Memorial Monday holiday ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sunday for Mon session May 28 I've been remiss in thinking I wouldn't have to write an update till tomorrow because I don't have a spot fx account I've been thinking about my trading rather than thinking I need to analyze charts, but a look earlier at the Oanda open and I realized I needed a catch-up, so here it is great start, managed to delete my W chart and had to build a new one can't believe it, the 6E's open. wtfug. never could understand CME speak fug fug fug thought I was getting a day off. bugger. to trade or not, that's the question, will have to tomorrow morning. oh gawd. last 3 days I've been sleeping in fug. ok. so far the W price closed on or just above its ml. eyeballing there's a different ml about half way to the other's right line which comes in around that lower gap 1.29+- so after the 1.26067 level there's the higher 76 at 1.26772 I've adjusted the D sdcs and the upside doesn't appear to be better than the lower 76 and at that, the Tuesday session could see it's early ? H be the completion of this leg of a correction that will then turn and take out Friday's Low ? I think today's session Has to close Up to fulfill that scenario, but we'll see ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ attached is the May 22-24 trades pdf
Tue session May 29 well the Eupies got the short but at last look 5 pips are still needed to close the gap and might get closed this 4H bar ? hmmmmm, the biggy's the NFP on Friday which I think will be a small number, is that already playing in the scenario ? I re-adjusted the D sdcs again and yesterday's H hit the right line that intersected the 76 , and I'm wondering if the price will make a run for the higher 76 Thur/Fri's machinations were aroung a 4H sdc ml which the price has now broken out of, and sits about halfway between the ml and right line. the gap line on my chart looks like a support line that's intersected by another sdc outer line the 4H bars have been running down, but that intersection doesn't occur til the 0:8 bar, which seems an awfully long time to go sideways before a rally begins anyway, watch the Ls and see if the price holds, and then, presumably a Buy of course the price could just run up again from here and become a Sell after hitting the start of the gap ? at least that's my current thinking to base a trade on ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed session May 30 had Monday not been a holiday it's likely the C would have been higher, as is, it's still produced a high enough spike to qualify as the completion of that leg of the correction as today's action has indicated with 15m to go to the C I was expecting a higher C and the possibility of an hour or two of rally before a turn, but it looks like the market's turned and the downside's begun again. I was wondering if there'd be a run to around 1.25+ , maybe the gap line and then the dump of course, I have to caution that there could be another runup. this in preaparation for the NFP, and there is a TT argument for that, as well, although a new L's been made the price is still above various sdc and ml lines, so not that weak from that pov, and, surprise, surprise, it's that 1.26067 level again the price could travel to (1.26772 ???) but thru that gap, again ? if so it could produce a closing Up week ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thur session May 31 4:02 this morning, during the first 30s 6,853 contracts traded and the range jumped 44 pips, and at the end of the minute contracts total was 11,744 and range 47 pips after 2 hours the price had equalized and continued down 2 TTs, first is the next 4H beginning at 6pm pst, then the end of the 2am start of 6am after the JCs which I think may be down again, and I'll guess the GDP up higher than the consensus which is 2.1 Tue's C was on the D ml and don't think the L went thru it. there is a possibility that a rally occurs thru the NFP and giving something of the appearance as the May 19/21 rally and HC, so it'll be interesting to see how the price closes today, although with positive or even better than positve economic reports in the morning the price is much more likely to just dump. if there is a rally the top may be around 1.2460-80 downside fibos are 1.2323 , 1.2281 and 1.2238 which is a 50 off the M in May 2001 and is significant as it was the Greek loan resolution that occured in June 2010 and where the C of this 50 stopped after rallying back from 1.1875 , but with the new month beginning and the price already thru the M ml, the likelyhood is LLs down to the 1.179 area, possible into the 1.16s; the M 61 is at 1.1341 think this decline's been 'sell on rumour and buy on news' when the results of the Greek vote becomes known ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri session June 1 oops! first fibo yesterday should have been 1.2332 not 23 oops again ! forgot to mention the various sdcs about half way between the L and the 1.2460-80 area since the price broke thru and above the D mls 2 weeks ago, it's not penetrated them again simply kissed them and moved off. my scenario is for weak NFP numbers and a rally for the euro, nothing spectacular, just close the week up. of course every rally I've called's failed to materialize, although there are TTs here, and not to ignore these are others further on. also between Tue-Thur there appears to be a famed AB base or part of a correction prior to more downside but going with a base, and if the price gets thru the sdc lines, the 60-80 area Might be in reach next two 4H bars are the ones to watch as well as the L, If it travels down to the 1.2332 or having penetrated it rallies. next TT will be the NFP downside, there will of course be more downside as the W closed below the W sdc ml just a matter of slow or violent and if the fibo lines hold ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I'll post trade charts on Saturday afternoon
was correct the first time, took the price off the D which was positioned incorrectly so that level is 1.2323
Sunday for Mon session June 4 Mon and Tue are UK bank holidays celebrating QE II's anniversary, so it Might be a little lighter trading session, may give an idea of how much trading the UK is involved in If the banks etc trading rooms are also closed for the holiday a .25 rate cut by the ECB, possibly in July http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8477737/ecb-may-cut-rates-as-crisis-deepens no more Greek vote polls, basically the for/against austerity parties are neck and neck what happens if a coalition government isn't formed ? re-voting till they get one ? I'm undecided about what the price is going to do next the price has fulfilled my criteria for a correction of May 17-June 1 , so it could just turn from here and continue down, or was June 1 the beginning of a new Up wave ? using the ECB meeting on Wed as a TT the price could also stay up for a couple of more days. is it possible for the price to remain up until the Greek vote ? reach the 1.2680+ area ? up to the gap at 1.2519 ? but top this week and then begin to decline ? 2:00am pst: Oanda printed a low of 1.23839 , the price has since risen and looks as tho it may come off again. if a low is made first, I'd say look for a HH than Friday's, but a H made first, then watch the next 2-4 hours to see if there's a fast turn down ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue session June 5 no difference in volume - Mon June 4 6E vol 236,902 - - - Mon May 21 vol 227,694 on the 60m, the price closed once on the 1.24954 61 , dropped and rallied to close at 1.24984 , with the 2pm bar beginning to decline if the formation is a reversal, obviously down, if a correction, more upside. the price to watch is around 1.2475 , presuming it drops that much, which is the previous LC area and depending how slowly the price moves, it could begin a rally on the 4pm bar - H2 or not start until the 4:00H bar the gap starts at 1.2519 , there's a 76 at 1.2544 and the end of the gap is at 1.2560 so those are a resistance area for the price to go thru before being able to travel higher If it were going to do so. the price is outside 60 and 4H charts' sdcs without me adding additonal ones, but within the new wider D's which intersects other lines - eyeball - just above the gap line, but which is not to say the price couldn't run to a 76 area 1.2560 the alternate is of course straight down from here ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~