for Monday August 12/13 ~ 2:52pm pst Friday August 9 trades S 14.5 1.3363 C 1.3337 $3,770.00 B 15.5 1.3337 C 1.3347 $1,550.00 S 15.5 1.3347 C 1.3340 $1,050.00 B 16 1.3341 C 1.3348 $1,120.00 S 16 1.3348 C 1.3341 $1,120.00 B 16.5 1.3341 C 1.3347 $990.00 S 16.5 1.3347 C 1.3341 $990.00 B 17 1.3341 C 1.3347 $990.00 S 17 1.3347 C 1.3342 $850.00 S 17.5 1.3347 C 1.3341 $1050 last week of demo and ROI trading Trading Margin ROI ~ Wk 10: trades Monday Aug 5 to Friday August 9 Close includes closed and current open trades, adjusted running profit or loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . profit / loss . . . . roi % . . . . initial margin fx pairs: . . . . . . . $78,558.70 . . . 3,020.69 . . . . $2,600.68 ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend dx: SELL ~ Buy ~ B S ?: likely to continue up, could it hit 41.47 again ? rally, reverse then down in session ? or stay up ? still looking for 80.62 area - this week eur: BUY ~ Sell ~ S: 1.3316 area, but could drop to 1.3288 area; close session down ? aud: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 0.92961 gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ S B: 1.570 area ? nzd: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 0.8063 , maybe 0.8106 which is major resistance cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: 1.01 area ? - has to break 1.024 chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ B ?: 96.74 ? .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: see if it breaks 1678 .................. gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: see if it hits 1350 area cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: looking for possible new highs ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: cautious; see if it breaks 3.184 - the 50 .................. notes: light rain, THUNDERSTORM - one flash of lightning which I saw fortunately otherwise the God Almighty CRACK of thunder would have had me fall out of my chair in sheer terror. sunny now
for Tuesday August 13/13 ~ 2:30pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend dx: SELL ~ Buy ~ B S ?: rally to 81.81 ??? 80.62 area - this week eur: BUY ~ Sell ~ S: could be going to base, but, possibility price goes to 1.3232 aud: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 0.92961 gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ S B: 1.570 area ? nzd: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 0.8063 , maybe 0.8106 which is major resistance cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: cautious, may stay up, hanging, 1.01 area, break 1.024 chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: could retrace to 0.9270 jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: cautious: close up ? after correction to 1680 ? .................. gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: have to see if the price goes to 1414 then onto the 1470 area cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: still got support ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: correction completed, if not it's a base. will it break 3.184 .................. notes:
for Wednesday August 14/13 ~ 4:03pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends > dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: believe the next downleg will begin after small reversal - 80.62 area - this week > eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: base then begin rally; French, German prelim gdp at 1.30 and 2am est , EU flash gdp at 5am est; German forecast is 0.6 so it has to hit or better that for the rally to start - 3rd 4H bar, not sure the EU matters so much but it should meet or better the forecast also; if the numbers aren't met . . . > aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 1.570 area ? nzd: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: > cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: hanging, 1.01 area, break 1.024 chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: .................. > es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: possible large down day, new low, close down .................. > gc: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: either a reversal or a correction prior to a new rally, 1273 is the critical level. rally targets: 1414 then onto the 1470 area cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: still got support ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: correction completed, if not it's a base. will it break 3.184 .................. notes:
for Thursday August 15/13 ~ 3:24pm pst today and tomorrow sees the release of 15 US economic reports, and if there's a lot of Forecasts misses . . . ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: slower downturn than I'd expected - 80.62 area - this week eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: base then rally didn't happen - yet, today ? tomorrow ? Monday ? aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 1.570 area ? > nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: not sure if it's finished going up, upside break 0.8064 and the downside break 0.7919 . either reversal top in or correction if it holds 0.7919 cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: 1.01 area, break 1.024 chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: upside break 0.9396 otherwise down but, today ? Fri ? Mon ? jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: upside break 98.57 , appears to have turned down .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: caution. closed on its LL but not a new downside low, the Dow did make a new low. downside break would first be 1675 , 1671 , 1670 and I see the Dow's already breaking down .................. gc: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: either a reversal or a correction prior to a new rally, 1273 is the critical level. rally targets: 1414 then onto the 1470 area cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: still rising > ng: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: bit late with this, 3.44 ? .................. notes: cloud cover, cooooler
for Friday August 16/13 ~ 4:08pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: well we know from time to time the dx is quite erratic and volatile such as today, and could from my pov stay up, crash, drift quietly downward during this session, target 80.696 or lower eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: have to wonder seeing the machinations the euro went thru the last couple of days if it was all about the Claims. anyway, more upside to come and as said in the dx, question of what the $ will do, dump or dally. break 1.3416 > 1.3450 downside ? not expecting any but . . . aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 1.570 area ? nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: reversal formation complete - completing ? up break 0.81 cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: needs to break 1.029 then 1.027 for more downside, next wk chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: down but slowing .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: looking for 1636 area, today or next week. Dow equivalent is 1490 and the but is, break down Much lower .................. > gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: see if it breaks 1393 then 1424 for higher prices > cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ S B: still has support for more upside, S is for a correction for this session only ? could drop then rally quickly ng: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: raised, 3.50s ? .................. notes: where's the sun ?
for the most part the focus will be on the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday at 2pm est Thursday for EU announcements, and Jackson Hole beginning Thursday for any loose lips, gossip etc that CNBC will probably be covering for Monday August 19/13 ~ 2:06pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends > dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: a small up day. downside target 80.696 has to break 80.615 looking for a possible 79.50 > eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ S: a quiet day with drop to 1.3280 area > aud: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 0.929 - 0.93 area > gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ S: one day correction ? > nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: more upside > cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: revesal correcting > chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: session only jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: .................. > es: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: may get a retracement for most of the session, like the Dow has bounced a 50 , 1658 to 1662 area .................. gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: see if it breaks 1393 then 1424 for higher prices > cl: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: still has support for more upside but may be completing a what could be a major reversal formation - major in the sense of DOWN > ng: SELL ~ Buy ~ B S: could go higher but watch out for revesal .................. notes: it's back
for Tuesday August 20/13 ~ 3:08pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends > dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: 'looks like' it's completed its correction > eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: - presuming the $ drops, difficult to interpret aud: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: keeping B, but, may have reversed 0.929 - 0.93 area > gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: caution cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ B: caution > chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: .................. > es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: should continue down .................. gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution. see if it breaks 1393 then 1424 for higher prices > cl: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: have to go with the Sell which may be early, but . . . > ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ B S: may have topped, may rally back up for reversal, 3.51 is a 50% retracement from the H of 3.827 .................. notes: cloudy, sunny, cloudy, sunny, cloudy, sunny . . .
for Wednesday August 21/13 ~ 3:52pm pst the Minutes ought to be a non event, unless there's any change/emphasis on when traders currently believe the easing begins ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends > dx: SELL ~ Sell ~ B S: $'s grinding its way down, lots of corrections. today it tapped the 76 where in June it consolidated for several days before the price ran up to 85 the price 'ought' to drop thru the 76 , whether or not the Minutes will generate any sort of market direction will have to be waited for > eur: BUY ~ Buy ~ S: could drop to 1.3350 , maybe around 1.3382 area. euro traders may wait on the Minutes but Thursday has more EU specific announcements > aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: caution the price doesn't turn around and rally gbp: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution > nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: as aud > cad: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: caution: may be early on this, question of when it turns down chf: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: possible bounce anywhere here or from 0.9120-0.9100 area > jpy: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: caution: could go back up to 98.56 , more likely 98.11 .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: did wonder if it would bounce but didn't think about the price setting up for the Minutes. won't change the S because I don't believe the price will go higher than Tuesday's session H, but, 1662 ? .................. > gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B S: caution. if the price doesn't close above 1384 , may have topped cl: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: presume it's topped, needs to close below 101 to begin with > ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: topped .................. notes: 's'sunny
France Germany EU Flashes 3 3:30 4am est US Claims Manufacturing 8:30 9am est for Thursday August 22/13 ~ 5:44pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends > dx: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution: not sure if the $ will stay up, this session, and Friday ? > eur: BUY ~ Sell ~ B S: forgot to change the Buy to Sell price dropped to a 61 - 1.3345 and basing ? but I think the price may drop to the 1.33- 1.3280 area based on fibos etc with the decline lasting till Monday, but difficult to reason the $ staying up all that time. 'extreme' price drop 1.3232 1.320 areas aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: base or drop thru ? > gbp: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: early Sell, don't know the price won't go higher or reversal nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: as aud > cad: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: 'Holy guano Batman !' back up to 1.06 ? > chf: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: back up to 0.9395 ? > jpy: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution: could go back up to 98.56 , more likely 98.11 .................. es: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: should continue down till the Claims are released .................. > gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution. if the price holds 1532 , should rally again cl: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: presume it's topped, needs to close below 101 > ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: topped - hah ! cfd price Very different to Barchart 3.458 v 3.621 will keep the trend indicators but price could rally some more .................. notes: very nice out
for Friday August 23/13 ~ 4:00pm pst ALL CAPS major trend ~ Initial Caps interim trend ~ Initial session trend > indicates a change in one or more of the trends dx: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution: looks like the price has reached a top, but since I think aesthetically the euro should close down, the $ has to rally a bit and stay up eur: BUY ~ Sell ~ S: same L as yesterday ? a down close aud: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: bounced but should drop gbp: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: nzd: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: as aud cad: BUY ~ Buy ~ B: back up to 1.06 ? chf: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: should stay up with the $ jpy: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: 99.75 ? .................. > es: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: possibility the price could rally into next week, and the possibility the price rallies to the 1660 area, reverses and declines in this session the Dow topping in the 1503 area prices breaking and closing above levels would indicate the rallies are continuing .................. gc: SELL ~ Buy ~ B: caution. if the price holds 1532 , should rally again cl: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: presume it's topped, needs to close below 101 ng: SELL ~ Sell ~ S: will keep the trend indicators but price could rally some more .................. notes: nice again