a Lot of potentially market moving economic announcements this week Trading Margin ROI ~ Wk 8: trades Monday July 22 to Friday July 26 Close includes closed and current open trades, adjusted running profit or loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . profit / loss . . . . roi % . . . . initial margin fx pairs: . . . . . . . $13,799.33 . . . . 530.60 . . . . $2,600.68 for Monday July 29/13 ~ 12:38pm pst I expect this week to be the 'change' week, currencies and indices, a 'watch it !' week because of bouncing reactions to reports, but also a potentially very profitable period Currencies: $'s turned up for a while, a few days, perhaps the whole week eur Sell 1 L 1.32787 C 1.32697 $90.00 gbd Sell 1 L 1.53906 C 1.53738 $168.00 eur Sell 1 L 1.32810 C 1.32546 $264.00 eur Buy 1 L 1.32598 C 1.32854 $256.00 gbd Sell 1 L 1.53888 C 1.53619 $269.00 gbd Buy 1 L 1.53677 C 1.53882 $205.00 eur: Sell: believe the price has started down gbp: Sell: similar to above jpy: Sell 2 ml 99.528 ~ forgot I'd got this on, will keep it open and hedge it .................. aud: Sell nzd: Sell cad: Buy chf: Buy jpy: Buy .................. es: Sell believe the top's in, reversal formation complete, so the price should drop soon after it opens Sell 10 1683.25 C 1675.50 $3,839.80 Buy 10 1677.50 C 1683.75 $3,089.80 Sell 10 1685.50 C 1684.50 $496.48 Sell 30 1687.50 C 1675.00 $18,644.40 Sell 50 1680.00 C 1671.50 $21,074.00 Buy 50 1672.00 C 1985.75 $34,199.00 total: $88,709.36 to jul26 C .................. gc: Buy correcting cl: cautious Buy; still looking for a rally back up, possible, new high ? ng: Sell next price target 3.266 .................. notes: very pleasant
for Tuesday July 30/13 ~ 3:38pm pst Currencies: the $ hasn't yet moved as strongly as I'd expected, might drop a bit and then resume it's rally. the FOMC meeting's today, the announcement tomorrow so there's time for the price to rise and I'm presuming the price will pop 82 . there is tho the possibility of the price dropping to the 61 , about 81.40 , and possibly lower eur: Sell 1 L 1.32883 C 1.32425 $458.00 eur: Sell 1 L 1.32638 C 1.32601 $37.00 gbd: Sell 1 L 1.53943 C 1.53395 $548.00 gbd: Sell 1 L 1.53552 C 1.53414 $138.00 eur: eur: Sell 1 L 1.32657 gbp: gbd: Sell 1 L 1.53571 .................. aud: Sell nzd: Sell cad: Buy waiting on . . . chf: Buy jpy: Buy / Sell 2 ml 99.528 hasn't turned into a Buy, looks like it's basing on the 38 â will it hold ? .................. es: the price may go back up to the 1687 area, or only the 1685 and there'll possibly be a narrow sideways range until Wednesday's announcement, the but is that a slow extended correction is continuing and the next stage is down Buy / Sell - with caution Jul 29: Sell 100 1687.00 C 1683.00 $19,648.00 Jul 29: Sell 100 1688.50 C 1677.00 $57,148.00 Jul 29: Buy 200 1677.25 C 1680.25 $29,296.00 Jul 29: Sell 200 1682.50 C 1681.00 $14,296.00 .................. gc: Buy correcting cl: cautious Buy; still holding a 76 ng: Sell next price target 3.266 .................. notes: a lot of waiting appears to be going on with the prices, don't look away !
ADP 8:15am est down; advance GDP and PI 8:30am est both below consensus imo as you know the FOMC Minutes are a written statement only, but because of the reclassifications made to the calculation of the gdp, there might be something related to that which in turn might produce some difference compared to prior statements that scrutinizers will seize on, alternate is nothing different flux days until after the NFP on Friday for Wednesday July 31/13 ~ 4:07pm pst eur: Sell 1 L 1.32657 C 1.32536 $121.00 eur: Buy 1 L 1.32410 C 1.32649 $239.00 eur: Sell 1 L 1.32635 C 1.32489 $146.00 eur: Buy 1 L 1.32491 C 1.32627 $136.00 gbd: Sell 1 L 1.53571 C 1.52272 $1,299.00 gbd: Sell 1 L 1.52458 C 1.52339 $119.00 jpy: Sell 2 ml 99.528 C 97.889 $334.87 Currencies: the $ finally made a move and may do so again after some correction surprised the eur stayed up while the gbp dropped eur: Sell ??? hanging on the 76 again, not sure when it'll break but presuming down gbp: Buy ? may be reversing, the price may drop to the 1.5226 area again and I'll Buy or I've missed the entry but may still Buy - unless it's a Sell ; .................. aud: Buy short term 0.9130-40 ? nzd: Buy short term 0.8020 ? the usds could turn into Sells before the end of today's session so watch em ! cad: Buy chf: Buy jpy: Sell ? .................. es: best I'm going to say is more sideways until the third 4H, maybe 2nd or 3rd hour when the price may begin to drop, but I am expecting a down day es: Buy / Sell - with caution Sell 200 1687.00 C 1678.00 $89,296.00 Sell 300 1679.25 C 1678.75 $6,796.00 Buy 300 1679.00 C 1684.00 $73,944.00 .................. gc: Buy correction over ? cl: Buy - cautious, still haven't given up on a run back up - hanging on a different 76 ng: Sell same .................. notes: record for consecutive sunny days
some eu 2 min early releases BoE 7am est, ECB 'conference' and Claims up ? 8:30am est + several other US for Thursday August 1/13 ~ 7:11pm pst Currencies: major week and month change, more on the weekend the $ broke the 82 significantly, reversed to air kiss the 61 , rally and the break down should continue e S 1.5 1.32651 C 1.32508 $214.50 e B 1.5 1.32523 C 1.32691 $252.00 e S 1.5 1.32689 C 1.32159 $795.00 e S 2 1.33263 C 1.32709 $1,108.00 e S 2 1.33318 C 1.32928 $780.00 g S 1.5 1.52339 C 1.51939 $600.00 g B 1.5 1.51951 C 1.52051 $150.00 g S 1.5 1.51999 C 1.51282 $1,075.50 g S 2 1.52080 C 1.51583 $994.00 g S 2 1.52380 C 1.51808 $1,144.00 eur: Buy close the session up ? a new high ? gbp: Sell they wouldn't surprise cut would they ? reduction of qe ? a run down till the announcements ? .................. aud: Sell this pair's the current 'jpy', still declining since April with what looks like a Lot more to go nzd: Sell cad: Sell think we're at the tip point, 1.0122 area chf: Sell jpy: Sell sitting on fibo levels but should drop .................. es: if the session closes up it would make me think the NFP numbers will come in low and there'll be a sell off on Friday, more sideways S 500 1686.75 C 1683.00 $91,990.00 B 500 1683.25 C 1686.00 $66,990.00 S 500 1685.75 C 1684.25 $35,740.00 B 500 1684.75 C 1687.00 $54,490.00 S 500 1688.75 C 1682.25 $160,740.00 S 1K 1692.25 C 1681.50 $265,230.00 es: Buy / Sell - with caution .................. gc: Buy should get some more upside cl: Buy so we got the bounce, will it continue ? ng: Sell same .................. notes: record no rainfall - IF it doesn't rain before 10pm
NFP down, below consensus ? rate down a bit for Friday August 2/13 ~ 3:43pm pst Currencies: expecting the $ to turn down soon after opening oops ! yesterday's calls obviously arse backwards, hmmmm eur: Buy 2 1.32016 ~ if early will hedge gbp: Buy 2 1.51129 ~ if early will hedge .................. aud: Buy may be turning up for a while nzd: Buy short term cad: Buy tip point my ass, but, shouldn't it go down with the other usds ? chf: Sell watch out for a turn down which may have begun jpy: Sell possible, same as chf .................. es: believe a top's in for the time S 1K 1693.50 C 1692.00 $71,480.00 B 1K 1692.00 C 1697.00 $246,480.00 es: Sell 1.5K 1702.50 .................. gc: Sell cl: Buy continuing, new high ? ng: Sell same .................. notes: record
for Monday August 5/13 ~ 12:54pm pst Trading Margin ROI ~ Wk 9: trades Monday July 29 to Friday August 2 Close includes closed and current open trades, adjusted running profit or loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . profit / loss . . . . . roi % . . . initial margin fx pairs: . . . . . . . $32,977.70 . . . 1,268.04 . . . . $2,600.68 Currencies: is the $ going to base here and rally into a correction formation ? the March-April period saw the $ moving in a band between about 83.35 and 81.50 so I've an eye out for something similar occurring e B 2.5 1.32016 C 1.32114 $245.00 e S 2.5 1.32108 C 1.31933 $437.50 e B 2.5 1.31991 C 1.32756 $1,147.50 e S 2.5 1.32726 C 1.32402 $486.00 e B 3.0 1.32419 C 1.32889 $1,410.00 g B 2.5 1.51129 C 1.51187 $145.00 g S 2.5 1.51170 C 1.51044 $315.00 g B 2.5 1.51562 C 1.52679 $1,675.50 g S 2.5 1.52633 C 1.52237 $594.00 g B 3.0 1.52270 C 1.52948 $2,034.00 eur: Buy gbp: Buy .................. aud: Sell may turn to Buy nzd: Sell may turn to Buy cad: Buy chf: Sell could turn to Buy quickly jpy: Sell could turn to Buy quickly .................. es: Sell correction no more demo trading, analysis only S 1.5K 1702.50 C 1701.25 $88,470.00 S 1.5K 1703.00 C 1699.00 $294,720.00 S 2K 1700.75 C 1696.50 $417,960.00 B 2K 1697.00 C 1700.00 $292,960.00 S 2K 1699.50 C 1696.25 $317,960.00 S 3K 1699.50 C 1697.25 $326,940.00 tot: $3,111,283.36 .................. gc: Sell/Buy session, price may drop but believe there's more upside cl: Buy still on ng: Sell till 3.266 when a correction should occur .................. notes: bank holiday here
for Tuesday August 6/13 ~ 3:14pm pst full circle. dropped trading the gbp trading the 6E + 3 pips above the eurusd, but no difference in trades' profit / loss in case you don't know the difference between the trading margins of the 6E v eurusd 6E day trade margin $500.00 ~ eurusd 1 Lot day or o/n margin @ 30:1 ~ $$4,420.17 $32,977.70 account marging permits 30 6E contracts traded v 7 for the eurusd 6e B 30 contracts ~ 1.3240 C 1.3260 ~ $7,366.80 net $4.44 rt comm x 30 = $133.20 eur B 7 Lots @ 30:1 1.3240 C 1.3260 ~ $1,400.00 net B 7 1.3240 C 1.3260 $1,400.00 S 7 1.3265 C 1.3254 $770.00 S 7 1.3161 C 1.3256 $350.00 Currencies: $ held a fibo level and may pop up again eur: Sell don't expect the price to break 1.32658/1.3268 will enter a Sell looking for 1.3176 - 63 area , has to break 1.3232 area .................. aud: Sell short term Buy, may stay up a bit but Sell's still on gbp: Buy think this stays on till Wednesday when Carney speaks nzd: Sell same as aud cad: Buy maybe one more up chf: Sell pop up a bit ? jpy: Sell .................. es: Sell correction .................. gc: Sell 1283 area and base ? cl: Buy ng: Sell nearly there .................. notes: should have gone to the beach
for some sicko psycho sado maso reason I deleted my original Monday analysis actually, I made a copy, then wrote the one I posted. here's the original: ' I'm expecting the $ to continue down the euro, based on various lines etc has a Lot of upside potential technically and we also know the qe will continue, so we've a Buy till the FOMC meeting of Sep 17-18 corrections along the way. there's 2 gls near fibo levels 1.35 1.362 - 1.366 areas with an sdc ml between them, price targets at the 61 of 1.3832 , and higher the alternate is the price drops from here, for 2 ? weeks. ' I think I must have been pizzed off I'd be working Monday while everyone else was on holiday. was I punishing you the reader ? absolutely not, my apologies anyway rest assured, I'm in my happy place again, there will not be a repeat of the Monday sicko psycho sado maso post again, next time I'll take the holiday BoE Gov Carney on Inflation Report 5:30am est for Wednesday August 7/13 ~ 2:52pm pst S 7.5 1.3262 C 1.3255 $525.00 S 8 1.3270 C 1.3250 $1,600.00 S 8 1.3315 C 1.3285 $2,40000 S 8.5 1.3297 C 1.3296 $85.00 B 8.5 1.3307 C 1.3312 $425.00 S 9 1.3212 C 1.3302 $900.00 S 9 1.3311 C 1.3304 $630.00 eur: Buy should blow thru the 61 at 1.3345 , but, could turn down for a correction then rally again starting Friday or Monday .................. aud: Buy keep going to 0.9130s ? gbp: Buy nzd: Buy cad: Buy chf: Sell jpy: Sell .................. es: Sell .................. gc: Sell could drop another 10 or 20 bucks and still rally again, lower, it's gone cl: Sell top may be in and down from here, but, if the price holds the 100 area - max there's the possibility that's the end of a bull correction and the price will rally again ng: Sell neeeearly there .................. notes: hotting up
for Thursday August 8/13 ~ 3:15pm pst eur: Sell/Buy ? think we're going to have a down day, or part of one the eurusd July 31 HH 1.33439 and Aug 7 HH 1.33445 suggests a correction rather than top (although it could be a top) as yesterday's HC was well above the 31's and the close 1.33358 not far below the 61 at 1.33451 why didn't the price punch thru the 61 ? the ECB Monthly Bulletin is at 4am est is that the reason the rally stopped ? down to 1.3319-14 ? 1.33 ? S 11.5 1.3344 B 9.5 1.3295 C 1.3312 $1,615.00 S 9.5 1.3308 C 1.3283 $2,375.00 B 10.5 1.3320 C 1.3343 $2,415.00 S 11 1.3342 C 1.3332 $1,100.00 B 11 1.3332 C 1.3343 $1,100.00 .................. aud: Buy gbp: Buy nzd: Buy 0.8065 ? cad: Buy chf: Sell jpy: Sell .................. es: Buy/Sell should hit 1691+ , and turn down ? .................. gc- xauusd: Buy/Sell see if it breaks 1296.05 , but a slow drift down cl - cfd: Buy short term, may turn, on a fibo level but could drop easily ng - cfd: Sell there's a 50 level at 3.184 (3.10) so that's where the price should play for a couple of days .................. notes: hot
for Friday August 9/13 ~ 2:55m pst eur: Buy/Sell ? can't make up my mind whether the price will continue up or close down 1.3345 area ? the rally tho should continue next week, current W C is well above June's S 11.5 1.3344 C 1.3331 $1,495.00 B 11.5 1.3336 C 1.3394 $6,670.00 B 13 1.3386 C 1.3395 $1,820.00 S 13.5 1.3398 C 1.3384 $1,890.00 B 14 1.3384 C 1.3390 $840.00 S 14 1.3390 C 1.3382 $1,120.00 .................. aud: Sell could stay up a bit, but expecting the price to turn down gbp: Sell right shoulder on the W, but could stay up a while before turning down nzd: Buy 0.8063 , maybe 0.8106 which is major resistance cad: Sell/Buy/Sell difficult to know if it'll bounce the fibo at 1.02913 rally, maybe stay up, sideways the session, or drop thru the 38 . Employment at 8:30am est - bouncy ! chf: Sell jpy: Sell .................. es: Sell may do a correction first but down .................. gc: Buy/Sell could stay up most of the session then turn down 'a slow drift down' - looking at the W cl: Sell could base here; next week before direction's confirmed ng: Buy sneaky, turned before it hit the 50 . could stay up, back to 3.479 ? .................. notes: nice. have a good one