amended CL cfd profit ~ $20.54 'may you trade financial instruments full of price spikes and swings' for Thursday May 23/13 ~ 2:29pm pst Claims: up a bit more ? no changes, except praying harder for the price of silver to fall, although maybe I'd better write an update the EU, French and Germans are going to be Flashing from 3-4am est. think both German PMI and the EU's numbers will be smaller than the forecasts Currencies: all have closed thru their respective fibo levels so I expect their trends to continue the euro stopped on various lines, but the Weekly's gone very soft and I expect it to close the week down. Friday has the final q/q German gdp, should be 0.1% , but . . . there's a line at 1.2814 but the 'watch-out !' is around 1.2795 since there's D and W mls that broken thru means a Lot of downside. upside, 1.2875 ? GC: gold's completed the reversal bounce retracement and on the way down again SI: as above - phew ! CL: crude hit but didn't penetrate the various resistance levels, and declined. I'll say the first downside break would be 93.89 , and then around 91.90 if it's to go lower but it could bounce up again from the higher level, or if it goes that low, the lower, so the Sell was from the resistance top NG: is on its way up again, it's been a Buy, see if it breaks and closes above 4.43 ES NQ YM : can't believe it ! I look away for a minute and they all start dropping will stay with the Buys since I consider the up trend's still my friend, except today a set-up for tomorrow ?
early close for Memorial Day ? happy holiday closed the SI trade and dropped it from the portfolio, will continue with gold trading for Friday May 24/13 ~ 3:25pm pst there may be more downside again tomorrow but overall I believe the trends remain the same for currencies and indexes the euro specifically looks as tho it's completed a reversal formation, and if so should then begin to decline CL could continue to rally since both the low and close are similar to those of last week's. the price could also decline again and make a close around the 92 area then begin a rally next week NG still a Buy
thought the markets were closed, don't seem to have missed much Return On Investment to the Friday Close May 24/13 . . . . . . . . . profit/loss . . . margin . . . . . ROI 1 audusd . . $134.67 . . . . $325.57 . . . .41.36 % . . . 10 days 2 eurusd . . .$114.70 . . . . $428.70 . . . .26.75 % . . . 3 weeks 3 gbpusd . . $46.67 . . . . . $508.22 . . . . 9.18 % . . . .10 days 4 nzdusd . . $111.00 . . . . $270.31 . . . .41.06 % . . . 10 days 5 usdcad . . $84.79 . . . . . $340.47 . . . .24.93 % . . . 10 days 6 usdchf . - ($27.74) . . . . $322.13 . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 days 7 usdjpy . . .$136.11 . . . . $340.94 . . . .39.92 % . . . 10 days 6 pairs . . . .$627.94 . . . . $2,214.21 . . 28.35 % . . . .3 weeks 7 pairs . . . .$600.24 . . . . $2,536.34 . . 23.66 % . . . .3 weeks gold . . . . . . $936.70 . . . $3,251.00 . . 28.81 % . . . . 4 weeks 7 fx + gold .$1,536.94 . . .$5,787.34 . . 26.55 % . . . . 4 weeks 3 index . .- ($1390.68) . . $8,800.00 . . doomed ? . . . 5 days for Tuesday May 28/13 ~ 3:20pm pst Currencies: s t a r t i n g to get back into their trends Gold: a bit concerned if the formation is still a correction or if the price'll break 1488 a Buy at the Low is still on CL: too tight an up and down variation for me to trade, temporarily can go either way NG: need to see it break 4.44 for more upside, but stll a Buy Indexes: Dow appears to have the bit between its teeth, needs to close above 1535 to see if it runs, then the others with it
for Tuesday May 28/13 ~ 8:53am pst closed ES NQ YM 4H formation looks like a reversal or at least may continue to decline as a correction no Sells entered
will be dropping the CL, NG, ES and NQ from the portfolio, but will from time to time update the CL and NG basically the ES and NQ follow the YM so a YM update applies to the ES and NQ for Wednesday May 29/13 ~ 2:49pm pst Currencies: Sell on Gold: looking like the Sell's resuming CL: probably down again NG: well, , , it could go back up again, but . . . Indexes: if a correction, could see the prices drop to last Thursday's low, but a smaller drop's also possible, maybe lasts until Friday ?
the euro rally was a big surprise to me, I was thinking down overnight, and the much larger than expected increase in German claims didn't seem to matter; Sell set-up ? for Thursday May 30/13 ~ 3:35pm pst Currencies: maintaining current positions, only one I feel threatened about is the euro aud: at the breakdown area, will it break ? eur: ??? 4H formation looks like an H&S about to start down; and it also looks like it's completed the correction prior to a new leg up and break thru of the chasm line a re-test of the highs ? gbp: looks like it formed a base 4H, longer tfs it's still at the breakdown area nzd: looks like it's rolled over and heading down; in breakdown area cad: in break up area chf: in break up area jpy: I'd expected the jpy to be at 105 by now, also in breakup area Gold: maintaining position but watching it and could close it if it breaks 1414 Indexes: looks like one more leg down, previous lows area ? US market for bottom ?
all trades closed, ROI to Thursday Close May 30/13 . . . . . . . . . profit/loss . . . margin . . . . . ROI 1 audusd . . $199.50 . . . .$325.57 . . . . 61.27 % . . . . 15 days 2 eurusd . . .$148.60 . . . .$428.70 . . . . 34.66 % . . . . 4 weeks 3 gbpusd . . $67.00 . . . . $508.22 . . . . 13.18 % . . . . 15 days 4 nzdusd . . $90.80 . . . . $270.31 . . . . .33.59 % . . . .15 days 5 usdcad . . $156.34 . . . $340.47 . . . . .45.91 % . . . .15 days 6 usdchf . - ($31.51) . . . $322.13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 days 7 usdjpy . . .$188.48 . . . .$340.94 . . . . 55.28 % . . . 15 days 6 pairs . . . .$850.72 . . . .$2,214.21 . . .38.42 % . . . . 5 weeks 7 pairs . . . .$819.21 . . . $2,536.34 . . . 32.29 % . . . . 5 weeks gold . . . . . .$770.33 . . . $3,251.00 . . . 23.69 % . . . .5 weeks 7 fx + gold .$1,589.54 . . $5,787.34 . . . 27.46 % . . . . 5 weeks ym index . . $771.88 . . . $2,750.00 . . . 28.06 % . . . . 9 days ALL . . . . . .$2,361.42 . . $8,537.34 . . . 27.65 % . . . .5 weeks the roi shows a profit, but it doesn't show how terrible my trade management was during the period, nor how much potential profit was missed another matter is if it's worth trading the gold and index futures given how much margin's required to do so: gold + ym margin v 7 fx pairs margin: $6001 v $2536 ~ profit: $1544 v $819 and then there's trading a full lot or futures contract where the margin amount is in between the two: audusd $3255 ~ 6E $3300 and profits $1995 ~ $1486 and not much more to trade 2 lots or futures contracts mind you, when you live where you can get 500:1 leverage on fx pairs . . . for Friday May 31/13 ~ 4:00pm pst Currencies: one thing I overlooked yesterday was that 'break down - up' areas are also 'support - resistance' areas; realizing that later yesterday evening resulted in me closing all the trades last night something else is what looks like an H&S in both the 4H and D DX charts. whether this is a signal for a trend change will have to wait till my next update aud: bounced off a fibo, holding support and rising eur: certainly looks like it'll get thru the chasm line, and then how high ? gbp: have to say it's based around a fibo - support, so your Buy's still on nzd: similar to gbp cad: moving between 2 fibo levels but still looks like a bull formation chf: well, it's heading down jpy: support ? around 99.722 gold: retraced 50% of its last decline, could stop here, could also continue to rise back up to the 1487 area, then a possibility of the April-May formation being a correction indicative of more downside ym: another great entry, Sell YM 15276 , got carried away with closing all the trades just to try and even things up - 'famous last $s' - Sell 2 ES 1656.50
may trade cl, ng as and when; trading the ES - higher volume and lower day margin any additional trades entered will be posted in the next update for Monday June 3/13 ~ 2:44pm pst lots of price moving announcements thru the week culminating in the NFP on Friday Currencies: the H&Ss I referred to on the DX disappear in the M, and the larger tf and its formation appears as a retracement top; this means the $ will decline, could go as low as 79 , but might stop at 80 . this would of course be a Large decline and take several months to complete - September-October IF this scenario is correct, it would then become the completion of a correction that would see the next large $ rally and breakout above the 90 level but a large change in the direction of the other currencies, IF, my analysis is correct aud: Buy 0.96186 eur: some downside, then a Buy gbp: Buy 1.52030 nzd: Buy 079736 cad: still looking like it'll break previous highs, Buy chf: downside, Sell jpy: did the yen top ? reversal formation on the D May 17-22 , a rally here would be a correction completing a retracement correction after which there'll be more down es: expecting more downside possibly lasting the whole week xauusd: 0.10 Sell 1387.81 .................. cl: D looks like it could drop to the 90 area, but the W looks like it's ready to rally ng: see if it continues down