I must apologise for yesterday's flip one-liner. in my defence, I have to tell you that I was abducted by Wild Women who barely ! allowed my to post what I did, kept me up ! all night, and it wasn't until after NOON today that I regained conciousness and was able to return home I really will try and make the effort to post on Saturdays, although may still have to update on Sundays if there's something going on in the new week's pre-market ""May you live in interesting times", often referred to as the Chinese curse, is reputed to be the English translation of an ancient Chinese proverb and curse, although it may have originated amongst the English themselves." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times For Tuesday April 16/13 longer term I'm still seeing the Buy and nothing's changed to suggest a Sell, even if the eurusd price were to drop lower. it has hit a 61 although not the fibo of the whole rally begun Apri 4 , and at this time I don't expect it to go lower, in fact correction over appears to have occurred. but; have to add that the price could, could form an AB base and if so, might, form until the US session, with a could be touch lower down to the 1.3020 area downside break would be the 1.3020 level upside, looking for the break of 1.3150 and close above that level 4:01pm pst gold: closed the Sells an hour ago since they'd hit a 'significant' 61 profits on the xauusd demo trades were $2306 and $2545 chart update: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3780984#post3780984
1.3150 was an arbitrary level I wanted to see the price close above, which it did with a close that topped a fibo level the price could continue to rally which is what I have in mind; a correction here is I think one that would be shallow - if there is one For Wednesday April 17/13 downside: depends on what sort of correction if there is one, could go down to the 1.3150 area, into hour 7 , there's no EU announcements listed of any consequence upside: could continue rallying from here, stay with the Buy, 1.3270 , 1.33 . . . 3:16pm pst
'stay with the Buy' obviously incorrect looking at the dx weekly chart, if the price breaks 82.96 and closes the week above 83.18 I'd start thinking new highs to come - euro Down. close below 83.18 and it looks like the right shoulder of an H&S - euro back Up next week For Thursday April 18/13 downside: there's some support on the 4H, break 1.3001 means more downside maybe to 1.2970 , but breaking 1.2960 could be a 'head's up below !' upside: I don't expect a lot, maybe 1.3060 area, think tomorrow's Claims will come in low so that'll be a price deflator 4:50pm pst
German PPI 2am est and President Weidmann speech in Washington 7:30am est G20 and IMF meetings in Washington interesting the price popped the chasm line and closed just under it the euro weekly looks like the price will drop, however there's been little corrective action on that tf so judgement's reserved For Friday April 19/13 downside: still remains as yesterday and a low close would make for a good Buy next week upside: not sure there will be any, a ssslllloooooow day 3:00pm pst gold xauusd Sell entered at 1388.26 , maybe a bit early but better than late
For Monday April 22/13 may see some upside to the 1.3080 area, but overall expecting a declining session down to 1.3008 , perhaps as low as 1.2970 just checked the XE site and see the price has already hit 1.30908 , so, there 'might' be a sell off from here, but, I suppose there could be an up day today, waffling I know but there it is 1:49pm pst
ok, some US housing data but the EU is Flashing tonite 3 , 3:30 and 4am est and as you recall, released 2 minutes before the listed times For Tuesday April 23/13 I think the price is likely to rise until the flash data's released. my estimate is that the flash data comes in lower than the forecast so there'll be a sell-off can't see the price running to 1.3123 again unless the flashes are positive the 'looks' of the daily is edging to the precarious where a breakdown would see a large fall, a change from Buy to Sell in a major way since the formation is looking like an H&S with the right shoulder forming. the weekly tho is a bit more positive, but I think we - I'll have to wait out the week to have a clearer idea of what's next 3:34pm pst
Wallace, congratulations for the great call about that DE PMI but a few minutes before that France PMI marked the new highs. So probably some shorts have been stopped early and then long trapped and shorts added after DE weak data. Let's see how it will evolve during the US session just begun.
For Wednesday April 24/13 not sure if the 4H will go down one more bar, or start to rally on that bar, however the downside seems to have stopped between the 1.2985-75 area then again, the daily is still looking palid and an obvious area for it to travel to is the 1.29 area which is the bottom chasm line, so yesterday's LL is the watch out area and if the price does break that level, probably a down day tomorrow 3:15pm pst
think Claims may be up a bit For Thursday April 25/13 mind change, an up day today, why not eh ? if you're keeping track, with the exception of a spike the price has held the 50 level and closed above during the last 2 sessions, so I'm now thinking we might go back up to the opening chasm line the biggy Friday is the Advance US GDP at 8:30am est - more tomorrow but is the euro setting up for that ? or should I say has set up . . . 2:28pm pst - - actual posting time was 12:32am pst
notwithstanding the rosy GDP estimate to be released at 8:30am est, I'll say that it will come in even lower than the previous quarter's, based on eyeballing several gdp related charts. I've been known to be wrong yesterday's pinging the 23 was a classic 'buy/sell on rumour sell/buy on news' type of trade for the Claims. what helped the sell-off was 'news' the ECB WILL ??? cut the rate by a 1/4 point . . . For Friday April 26/13 if my gdp prophesy comes true, the euro should rally for the past 10 days the C has been between the chasm lines, and the likelyhood is the price will decline to the lower one again. upside is 1.3026 , but the downside is first the 50 at 1.2927 , which if broken permits the price to drop to the 1.29 area, although there are a couple of fibos above including the current fibo's 61 at 1.2918 there is of course the possibility that the price could continue declining into the 1.28s 2:44pm pst