added: Nat Gas don't think session analysis, correct or incorrect has a place with B&H trading, so will leave it out. although this change to B&H trading is something I'm still working on, s'ok at the moment, everything's working together, just wonder how it'll be when there's corrections going on and everything's going in different directions the JPY trade was right on a fibo level - I found out later but is finally rising again similar with the Crude - it's on a fibo Gold looks like it's formed an AB reversal base, which I recognized before the trade was entered, but I've a longer timeline on it and the higher tfs still point down the question is tho, how much of a loss to risk and stay in the trade ? especially as the price could easily pop back up to 1620 again I'll sit with the trade as a 'lesson' and see what happens. I could also enter a Buy as in Canada a B and S can be entered on the same pair and cfds. not sure if I'd trade a gold cfd, there's 3 different futures contracts, I haven't yet worked out the different costs between them and the cfd, so don't know yet which is the best choice, gold's cfd has a much higher margin requirement than the SPX500 For Thursday March 7/13 - DXUS$: Buy ~ 81.5850 ~ Hold AUSUSD: Sell ~ 1.03182 ~ Hold - EURUD: Sell ~ 1.31896 ~ Hold AUSUSD: Sell ~ 1.03182 ~ Hold GBPUSD: Sell ~ 1.51595 ~ Hold NZDUSD: Sell ~ 0.83775 ~ Hold USDCAD: Buy ~ 1.02137 ~ Hold USDCHF: Buy ~ 0.92946 ~ Hold -USDJPY: Buy ~ 93.4140 ~ Hold - - Gold: Sell ~ 1573.69 ~ Hold CrudeOil: Sell ~ 89.8200 ~ Hold Nat Gas: Sell ~ 34.7000 ~ Hold - - DJIA: Buy ~ 14059.0 ~ Hold NASDAQ: Buy ~ 2746.73 ~ Hold Rus2000: Buy ~ 912.000 ~ Hold S&P 500: Buy ~ 1518.13 ~ Hold 3:40pm pst
For Friday March 8/13 omitting the trades list, if a trade takes place I'll just post it writing a mini report for the weekend â observations on the 'ch- ch- ch- changes' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . . . Consensus . . . Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 157,000 . . . 171,000 . . . . 130,000 to 225,000 Unemployment Rate - Level . . . 7.9% . . . . . 7.8% . . . . . . . 7.7 % to 7.9 % Jim Santelli's observation on CNBC was that a weaker than expected number will be read as positive for the stock markets - Fed's spending continues my observation is that with the payroll tax changes, the employed are not so quick to stop working, or give up their job, have dismissed thinking about trying to change jobs and this has become a universal attitude with the US employed it means there are fewer vacancies, fewer job opportunities, fewer hirings I think the number will come in low, or low to middle, and the rate 'may', uptick as far as the euro and $'s concerned; the $'s been stopped at what I think of as an interim fibo level for the past 4 sessions, it could be the top of its range for the present, but I'm stuck on seeing it hit the 83 - a dangerous attitude to have so my attitude to the euro is I may add another Sell, up until I go to bed, or after the NFP release, and if that's the case, I'll also add another Sell to the AUDUSD, but the high side of the euro could go into the 1.3180s, ending the week there . . . 4:33pm pst
all trades closed except for 3 losing trades, and back to session analysis â see attached for details For Monday March 11/13 the DX$'s H was 82.945 . the D is up to a couple of 61s and a couple of time targets but the C was 82.731 at the ml of a sec, which all suggest it'll keep going up Wednesday the EU Parliament votes on the EU budget, if the budget is voted down don't know but presume the news would be negative together then more downside for the euro to . . . there's an area around 2.90 , 2.87-5 where there might be a bounce. the price could stay up for an hour, maybe the first 4H, but watch it as it may break down from the open. all in all, Sell 3:10am pst
For Tuesday March 12/13 I don't believe a base has formed and a new rally is beginning, rather a correction and feeding into the Budget vote on Wednesday, something similar to last week so far the price's corrected to a 50 , there's a couple of 61s in the 1.3060s area then above that the gl at 1.3080 , but I don't think it'll get that high famous last words what I think may happen is the run up, then a decline to the NY open down to - depends how high it gets but say 1.3020s , then a rally again into the close don't know yet what time the vote will be announced, similar here to the NFP, even if the budget's voted for doesn't mean the price won't sell off, there's no good reason for it to rally and just another eu negative if the vote's against the budget Thursday sees the ECB Monthly Bulletin, EU employment and the beginning of the EU Economic Summit continuing rally would I think have to break thru the 1.3080 and 1.31 so a possible Buy, Sell, Buy this session and Sell, for or on Wednesday 3:45pm pst
For Wednesday March 13/13 this is a tough correction to try and interpret much less second guess a resolution to reject the budget adopted on 7 March representing the vast majority of MEPs is itself now seeing some rejection, so the vote may be a 'yes - But' which may or may not be interpreted as negative; announcement time not known the EU Summit is Thursday and Friday and the way my analysis is going I think it may be an up session today then a renewal of the downside I think any rally would end on the eu open, downside first ? 1.3010ish ? into the 1.2990s ? upside, 1.3032 , 1.3045 ? then in theory the Sell, or, the vote's a positive result and there's a rally and a close up day 4:35pm pst
the budget was voted down but not out I think, negotiations to follow For Thursday March 14/13 the price finally broke down yesterday rather than on Monday as I'd thought, but not as low as I'd expected, better late than never what I'm thinking is the price goes down again and then turns up on Friday. not a lot of downside, rally up a bit, the 1.2985 area till the eu open again then down the weekly hasn't had a wave break yet and next week could provide one, but the price could continue down on Friday which makes sense, rounds the week off for a fresh start Monday; and the price could continue declining today without a rally how low ? 1.2865 ? but also much lower, 1.2660-30 , and again, there's no reason why the price shouldn't continue down next week upside from here ? back up to 1.3060-+ ? that could happen too however, given that the $ has popped the 83 , I'm inclined to think it will be travelling higher on its way to 83.5 , and so will go with the continued euro Sell 3:30pm pst
For Friday March 15/13 'the weekly hasn't had a wave break yet' - should have stuck with that and not brought the $ into it, although . . . the $ did make a new H yesterday, the euro did make a new low; the $ has made what looks like a reversal formation, the euro has made what appears to be a base I thought we might have been out of the complexity but it's continuing. remaining in the correction could see the euro travel up to the 1.3060 area, into the 1.31s area and still be correcting. to become a correction wave on the weekly means closing up next Friday at a higher level still, a correction that's part of the whole downtrend so the price should continue up and remain up. I don't know there's anything that's expected from the EU Summit and that the present price action is only 'waiting and see' action and will resume the downtrend in this session, later in the day looking for an up close whatever that price may be, or we will notice that the price is declining and trade accordingly 4:06pm pst
For Monday March 18/13 what I'm thinking is, first, I don't know what the price is going to do, but working with the idea that the $ upside hasn't finished yet aside from the Flash, Zews and US stuff the main fundamental is the FOMC, and while we do not expect any increase in the FFR, we focus on what the Chairman may say, may not say, will repeat but re-phrased, leave unsaid, etc, etc, etc so I have no price targets but expect a sideways churn, possibly, until Wednesday when I expect/think the euro price wil resume its decline â or do I have that arse backwards ? 1:30pm pst
att: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD chart of the euro dump on Sunday/Monday first Sunday I didn't look at XE prior to writing the analysis, not that it'd have made a difference. what's amazing is how the price dropped about 140 pips and then went back up by the same amount before the permanent decline began again have to wonder if one should keep Any open positions over weekends, although the a long term Sell of the euro from Feb 1 would have benefitted For Tuesday March 19/13 the price has recovered getting on for 61% of the - chasm. the 60 has at present the appearance of an H&S and if that's what the formation is, suggests another decline of the price back possibly to the lows below 1.29 where it might, form a base; one time target I have on that is midmoring eu time, 3am/6am NA time, begining a rally from that low another interpretation is the price drops and holds 1.2918 then begins a rally which could begin on the next 4H bar and what about the price based during the first two Sun/Mon 4H bars, has made a primary rally and correction, and has begun to rally again which will ? close the gap the price could also drop thru the LL 1.2881 and keep declining the Weekly did get its wave break with the Friday close and imo's done enough for it to continue down and break the 1.26 it's difficult to for me to believe the price will rally back up and 'close the gap', a gap that's the largest I'm aware of for the euro, particularly since we're still waiting on further possible consequences and repercussions of the action the Cypriot govern- ment is undertaking, and an action that as yet remains unresolved . . . 4:40pm pst
For Wednesday March 20/13 price bases during these first 2 ? hours - if it hasn't already, then a rally ? not a lot of upside, 1.29-2920 , probably a Lot of sideways movement until the FOMC then the decline, , , or could the price decline to the FOMC and then rally ? price could of course continue declining; thinking Fri or Mon for 1.26 area with a break around the 1.2770s 3:55pm pst