Honestly vic, I don't see that ever happening. 'Tis a dream. I don't know what the cap will be for EV's, but it is well below 50% of in-service vehicles, commercial and private fleet combined.
I don't know what to tell you other than you're wrong. Sure, if you leave it to individuals -and some states will- EV adoption will be low. America has politicized alternative energy and EVs are its symbol. This is why you find such redneck reactions against EV drivers in parts of the country. But make no mistake, either direction, it's all interested education. As governments educate and promulgate a direction for the nation, corporate interests with counter interests will spend whatever it takes to sway opinions in a different direction. A conglomerate of industries that have dominated the transportation sector for 100 years isn't just going to bend forward and take it like a man, regardless of the reason. We're talking primarily about the oil industry although it's cousins gaz and coal industries have joined to add weight to their actions. Add the automotive sector, the parts industry and repair shops, gas stations, etc... And now you have hundreds of thousands of blue collar labor jobs, many union jobs, affected by the transition to an electrified world. Many Republican politicians, by choice or corporate pressure, have made the strategic decision to back the traditional industries. That's why we're seeing so many blue collar (union) workers unexpectedly voting Republican and why Republicans have been emphasizing the divide between educated so called ”elites" (as if a college degree made you an educated elite..) and "the working men and women who don't need a college degree to know better". So be it, but many Democratic states have adopted the same directives set by Europe and mandated the end of ICE vehicle sales by 2035. While that doesn't mean the end of ICE vehicles, the state has many levers to encourage the transition to EVs, starting with the existing purchase rebates. As adoption increases, gas stations, parts stores and mechanic repair shops will close. Inconvenience will set in. The oil industry may subsidize gas for a while but eventually reduced demand will lead to higher prices, making the EV value proposition even more attractive. With increased EVs charge points and EV specialized garages replacing traditional ones, we may see more than 50% of the EV auto park well before 2035 in places like California, Oregon and Northern Easter states. The snowball effect will be relentless and I expect some extreme oil/red states will require gas stations and gas subsidies to prevent $15/gallon prices. Change is hard and traumatic for some but change is a comin'
Took a closer look and the SPY etf is bouncing nicely. I'm too much of a coward to let my winnerz run, otherwize I might be doing better against it: