The Vulcan Report - Documenting the Economic Collapse of the entire global system.

TZ, you don;t have any more of a clue than anyone else,your feel, or opinion is just that,but you feel it's ok to blast away ,so your opinion counts and no one elses has any merit, is this a fair assessment

 

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Might see a small pop today so i will wait for a nice intraday short.

 

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moving entry points in the dollar to short.

 

Staying flat and looking to go long the dollar (temporarily) due to the ALERT below.


the Federal Reserve is meeting on Monday 04/05/2010 to discuss the discount rate. Its the only topic for discussion. I can only conclude that the Federal Reserve is interested in hiking the discount rate again.

Implications:

When the Fed raised the discount rate last time, the US Dollar rallied. So anyone long on USD/JPY may feel a bit more comfortable in their position. Of course, we have to get through NFP - its the quiet before the storm.

For a full detail of the announcement:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100405/advancedexp.htm

The Fed hiked the discount rate on Feb 18 so I went back and looked at the charts and saw that the dollar rallied across the board, here are my findings:

EUR/USD fell from 1.3615 to 1.3450ish
GBP/USD fell from 1.56ish to 1.53ish.
USD/JPY rallied from 90.5 0 to 92.00

Of course, there is a possibility the markets reaction may not be so strong this time as it is the discount rate, but I still see it as a dollar bullish event primarily because it is for short term borrowing and it signals tightening and normalization of monetary policy. The Fed expects to return to a 100 basis point spread for the discount rate BEFORE they start hiking funds rate. That means we need a 1.25% discount rate (it’ll be 1.00% or more on Monday if they hike it) for further reserve draining/fed fund hike. The US is also the only G-8 country at this time who is beginning to tightening monetary policy and remove excess stimulus measures.

The BoJ and ECB are no where near raising rates or removing stimulus.

 

SIMULTANEOUS MELTDOWN!!!


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The Vulcan Report (21) - Friday 16 Apr 2010 (part 2 of 2)

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