If by chance we do pentrate the 1.1969 area by several ticks and then pullback to it and hold, that is a good sign and would be a nice place to enter long. If the selling is too intense around this high, and we fail here I will cover.
This is interesting.... Sydney, February 20: The EUR/USD is expected to remain sidelined today due to the US holiday after a pretty whippy session on Friday. There is a story going around that a "mis-trade" occurred on Friday afternoon with an entity looking to sell Eurodollar futures and accidentally sold over a yard of EUR/USD on one of the trading platforms. The "error" resulted in the EUR/USD sliding from 1.1930 to 1.1875 and straight back to 1.1930 when the error was realized and reversed. The FX market has fully priced in the Fed hiking twice more to 5% and this has left the USD vulnerable to any evidence that does not confirm that outlook. That was the reason for stronger than usual "sell dollar" reaction to the weaker than expected Univ of Mich survey on Friday. This week the key events will be the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and a number of Fed speakers Thursday (Dallas Fed Pres Fischer) and Friday (Bernanke and St Louis Pres Poole). If expectations of two more Fed hikes are dampened by any or all of the above mentioned events, the EUR/USD should take out key resistance around 1.1950 and make tracks towards 1.2020.
9:30 PM Price at 1.1984. I see some pretty strong defense on the spot side around these levels. I am going to exit at 1.1997 - 1.2001 if I can get it or before if things start looking worse. DRT
I can see how you formulated your trade. Interestingly, I shoulda made the same trade you did. Instead I just tightened my stop on my short. Your trade is definately against a wall right now, still nice profit.
I just sold at 1.987. I am tired and going to bed. I may get up and trade the London session since tommorrow is a holiday here. I think there may be a lot of upside potential, but will take a look once some flow begins. Not bad for Sunday night...we picked up 32 points on this trade. Good night everyone.
DRT, I have a question. Do you use Pivot points? Like the typical floor trader pivot point calcuations? Regards Steve
I have many "key focus levels" one of which is always Pvt points, but I do not rely on typical pvt point calcs for my trading decisions. Do you use these?
Just after 5:00 AM and here are my thoughts. Price is at 1.1957. I am glad I exited and went to bed. Things never went up any further. At first glance, it looks like price wants to move down. I see 2 good levels moving down if this does happen. 1.1923 to 1.1928 1.1907 to 1.1911 area Looking up, we would need to move above 1.1970 for me to see upside. I may try this, if price moves up to 1.1961 I may go short down into these lower levels mentioned above. Let's see. DRT