Bitstream, I am not saying go long (or short). This is more of a generalization about the market. I would look for other confirming reasons in your methodology before making that decision. I am assuming you will do that, but I did not intend this post to generate a trade decision. Just some food for thought that's all. DRT
no worries, I said 'looking to long' because I am mainly a buy side trader, and certainly I don't take decisions after a single glance at a chart, but it was an eye opener on a good opportunity: I will evaluate and analyse this mkt on monday and then weight my chances, that's all.
Just a reminder, Monday is a holiday at CME Globex. Closes early at 12:00 Noon CST. http://www.cme.com/trading/res/cch/holiday_calendar3513.html
I have been futures trader for the past six years and during that time have bought and sold agriculture, energy, bonds and finally currency contracts. Of this group the currencies in my opinion, offer the best opportunities followed closely by the debt instruments. I now just trade the Euro. I begin to trade for the same reasons that most of those who either read or post here began; the markets first offer a challenge, become a consuming interest and then a passion. The market is a constant source of challenge (and frustration) and is akin at times to the effort of trying to push smoke into a bottle. You can see the potential but as soon as you reach for it, it is gone. The uncertainty principle manifested in the currency markets: the very act of looking at something somehow changes it. If there is a major failing in my own trading it is largely a failure of patience. Livermore said it best: "And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight." I work for a law firm, not as a lawyer but in legal research and case preparation, something that I have been doing successfully for the past fifteen years. Iâm good at it and live comfortably. However of late, the quality of my work has been slipping badly and it has been noticed. The reason is simple; I have been spending more and more time trading and allowing my day job to gradually slip away. It is difficult to concentrate if you are constantly watching that currency chart in the lower left had corner of the computer screen. You know what I mean. I am very frustrated just now because I am not seeing the success in my trading I expect to see given the amount of time and energy I have and continue put in. Getting up a 3 a.m. to catch the London open is probably not helping my level of alertness. Still I am on my way, albeit slowly, to making more in trading than I do in my day job. No guarantees in this business. DRT has started a very good journal and I congratulate him on doing so. If it stays on point and does not wander off into other areas like so many of the other ET forums have done in the past, perhaps we can all help each other become better currency traders and challenge each others ideas. DRT had done a great job so far and I wish him great success and to everyone else as well. I have an opinion as to the current the current position of the Euro, where it is now and where might go in the near term. Please jump all over me if you think that I am completely off base. I welcome any criticisms you may have. First I use Elliott wave to help me decide what the big picture is. Whether you believe it works or does not, the majority of the bigger players use it and it is important to recognize that reactions will occur when one of the key levels is reached. We know that December 31/04 was the high in the Euro (cash chart) at 1.3570. From that high we came down to the November 18th 05 low of 1.1637, and in a near perfect 5 wave decline. What we would normally expect from such a decline? A correction to at least 50% of that fall. That would take the market back up to the 1.2653 - 1.2893 (again on a cash basis). Short term, I will look to re-enter the March contract when the 1.1953 â 1.1955 (in the cash) level is broken. (The short term bottom is confirmed). This level marks the February 15th high. If the market pushes through that level then we would expect to see the 1.2083 and then the 1.2140 level to be hit in a reasonable short time period. This marks 50% ret. of the Jan 25th high to Feb 16th low. My bias is that in the near term, the decline in the Euro may be over. We will see next week. Thank you to everyone who takes the time to post their ideas, and especially to DRT who took the time out from his trading to start this journal.
Welcome aboard BLR. Looking forward to your input. Are you taking short term positions during the day while you work or what? Are you position trading? Must be tough but looks like you have mastered it to some degree.
I am long at 1.1955. If we can get thur the 1.969 area then I will exit at 1.2001 or when spot hits the .1985 area. Also see 1.2015 as a target. I think a better entry is at 1.1929, but I do not think we will get there and the holiday trading may effect it also.
I should have clarified. I sold just at the top of a channel I locked in 3 pips and just got stoppepd out. net profit 3 pips It was very short term trade.I was looking to get about 15 pips. Regards Steve