The View Down River (ECM06) Price is at 1.2069 I am currently short at 1.2034. Wow. This was a strong move up fueled by options plays also. I am still short and down 35 ticks but if the 2073 area gives way, I am running for cover. 2112 - Strong Resistnace 2073 - Strong resistance 1.2041 - Short below this level/Long above 2027 - THis needs to be cleared for a move lower. 2005 - Modest Support 1.1990/94 - Very Strong support. Possible long here. Take Profit. 1.1977 - Strong Support DRT
Good morning everyone: I did not haul myself out of bed at 3 am this morning to check the London open, just left my stop to work its magic. It is nice to see DRT back from his vacation, rested and ready to take on the currency markets with fresh eyes. I am long from 1933. Today's action now places the cash market well above its 100 period EMA and appears to ready to challenge the 12092 area. The resistance points I am watching are the 1.1983, ( we are now above this level as I write this) and then 1.2005 level as the next area of resistance (mild). I will be adding to my longs if we see a trade above the 1.2092 level. As always, good luck to everyone.
Price is now at 2083 and I am down about 50 ticks. I am holding short for now and not exiting here. In fact, if I wasn't already short, I would get short now. If I exit, I will let you know. DRT
Thank you DRT. I guess it just proves that if you make enough trades some actually work out. lol The market may be reacting to the U.S. retail sales figures that fell 1.3% in February, which apparently is the the biggest decline in the past six months. Things are slowing and the stock market is looking top heavy. My perspective is that the inflows into US assets are to going to slow affecting the dollar, at least in the intermediate term. March 20 is also the open of Iran's oil bourse. My upside targets are still 12509 to above the 12653 level. Have you see the numbers on the current account deficit? It came in around the 225 bn area, 7% of GDP. Terrible number no doubt. Above the March 6 high at 12092 I think the corrective up move to these targets is confirmed. First major target I think must be the Jan 24 high at 12321. I am prepared for a short term correction in here but my long term perspective has not changed, at least not yet. Well.......... that's the theory for now. As I have said before, I try never to get married to a particular viewpoint. I hate to keep quoting Jesse but, he said: "the ticker doesn't reward loyalty". I always try to remember that.
It is certainly a combination of many things. Personally, I think the current move is very emotional and reflects a lot of pent up traders needing to "get on the right side" of things. I want to keep my eye on this one. I know this sounds like a broken record, but I don't see it just yet. Much more damage to my P&L and then I may get it. hehe. I also have the Yen on a key pullback level. If it does not reverse and begin to move higher in the next session or so, then I may be convinced. **************************************************** With EUR/USD brushing the 1.2000 level after a dovish take from one of the consulting shops on future Fed hikes, dealers are looking for topside targets. 1.2025/30 is the while 1.2095 is the medium-term object for EUR bulls. 1.1985 is support on pullbacks near-term. Interest rate differentials have been contracting all day, which favors the EUR, and the forecast for funds topping out near 4.75% has accelerated the move. 10-year spreads are at 112 bp today from 123 bp just over a week ago. Contraction in the 2-year maturity is about the same, from 170 bp to 160 bp in the last week.
DRT: I think this is what makes this journal valuable, differing opinions that prevents me at least, from becoming too confident of my current position and outlook. Looks like we are stalled in this layered resistance area between in the 12025 - 12040/50 levels. I am closing my longs for the moment as I have to be away from my computer giving some time to my day job. Don't you hate it when that happens? I am going to look at the charts after the 5 pm close to see how the situation looks prior to the Asian session. I have had a reasonable run and I don't think we are likely to see much more action before the cash close. Famous last words I know. While we have some resistance in the levels noted above, the key for me is the Mar 6, 12092 level. I am looking for some correction here in the short term. Good luck and best wishes.
BLR, I did not intend any of my comments to make you re-think your position. It appears very sound to me. Our styles are much different. Everything sure appears as if long is the way to be.....that's usually when I think about going the opposite way. You should not let anything I say (or anyone else) cloud your judgement. It can lead to being vey unprofitable in this business. Follow your instincts and trust your judgement. I think you have a very solid view of the funda-technical picture with this pair. I think the odds are very much against my postion right now and very much in favor of profits for you. DRT