I've traded intra-day for a while now and have just made the decision to look at having a separate account for INVESTING in shares. Obviously, this is a totally different kettle of fish. When trading intra-day I had my opinion on fundamentals/technicals and be prepared to adapt my stance in a short period of time. However, I thought that it would be to my advantage to focus considerably more on the bigger picture for shares+derivatives which I intend to buy and hold for a theoretically unlimited time. I'm lucky enough to be working with a guy who has traded successfully for 30yrs and he's walked me through technical patterns and the fundamental clues that suggest when significant peaks/troughs might occur eg a boom in commodities is historically the final nail in the coffin for immediate growth in an economy. The accuracy of some of his theory is fantastic (quite heavily based on Elliott Wave which I personally didn't like up until now) but we all know how easy it is to fit a model to past events. His analysis is fantastic and fits the past 50yrs+ of data superbly. I'm amazed at how involved this guy is in assessing the market and if I had never traded before, I'd be buying every book he's written and soaking up everything he knows. HOWEVER, he's been calling a nosedive in the Australian stock market for a while now and he has given me justification as to why. What concerns me, and remember this guy is red hot on both fundamentals + technicals, is that his fundamental reasoning for an upcoming rise in interest rates is going to arrive at some stage to support the $A. Now, for me, that sent alarm bells off. I may be being a little naive but I genuinely believe that an independent central bank in a 'civilised' country has no political agenda and all they really tend to concentrate on is the long term stability of an economy i.e. controlling inflation. Any tweaking of interest rates to suit commodities exporters or for any other short term issue/political hot potato is something that is part of the past when the learning curve as to how to run an economy was at an earlier stage. Basically, I'd like an honest opinion on any/all of the following issues: 1.) Do central banks still show signs of political agenda? 2.) Do central banks realistically support their own currency at the expense of stepping on the toes of other objectives? 3.) Are we at a stage now, with central banks managing the economy independently, where the value of using data from pre 80s or so is inadvisable due to the fact that boom/bust isn't as wild as it used to be? Any thoughts much appreciated. Thanks in advance.