The US is now in recession

Discussion in 'Economics' started by earth_imperator, May 13, 2023.

  1. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    It might be time for some of you to understand you got hoodwinked into believing how bad everything was going to be this year. The data was telling a different tune starting in fall 2022.
     
    #61     Jul 13, 2023
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  2. mervyn

    mervyn

    Last year the market closed -19.95%, just a tick to avoid being a technical bear bear market. Excluding the pandemic, we haven’t had a bear market since 2008-2009. Earnings data started from Meta and Netflix, to General Mills and Tyson, were all missed.

    This is the most unhappy rally ever, even for longs. No euphoria, no one popping champagnes, no relaxation, no joys, lot of bettings and concentration, it will deflate if not pop.

    Hey, I got NVDA put assignments at 165 last September LOL, and it went down further to $140ish. I don’t feel happy. It is the same company making the same video cards as 6 months ago, what’s the justification? I bought TSLA when their Shanghai factory about to open, that was a story I can believe in, but not this time.
     
    #62     Jul 13, 2023
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    Where have you been? On vacation last year or something? The definition of a bear is not where the year ends.

    2022 the SP opened ~4670. By second week of June it closed ~3670. 1000 points down is over 20%. After a bounce the next 2 months to ~4300, it dropped to ~3580 by beginning of October, so that's an extra 100 points lower than June.

    You deny that we had a bear market last year?

    Some perma-bears just aren't satisfied we'll be in a bear until we reach the COVID low of ~2300. Fug it, that's not good enough. Bring it back to October 1987. Will ~250 on the S&P be good enough for you to declare a bear market?

    WTF!
     
    #63     Jul 13, 2023
  4. mervyn

    mervyn

    Dude, first Google link you can find the data, open and close, -19.95%, technically no. Got the market out when JP told everyone the 50bps hike rather than 75.

    https://www.hartfordfunds.com/pract...sations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
     
    #64     Jul 13, 2023
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    What data? Some list which shows the beginning of year to end of year? You going to believe the charts, or just some list put together by Ned David Research, whoever that is? Obviously they are WRONG. Just because it is listed at "Hartfordfunds.com" it all must be accurate and true? Jesus, you're weak and I cannot understand how blind you are. Don't you ask yourself questions?

    hartfordshittybearanalysis.jPG

    Green arrow shows 2 months
    Yellow arrow shows 1.25 months
    Red arrow shows whole year?

    Don't be daft.
     
    #65     Jul 13, 2023
  6. mervyn

    mervyn

    Covid crash wasn’t expected, 2009 was a continuation. Economy has cycles, when fundamentals and sentiments are contradictory, you better be careful.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2023
    #66     Jul 13, 2023
  7. Businessman

    Businessman

    S&P currently 6% off all time highs reached 19 months ago.

    How much inflation has there been over the last 19 months, could easily be around 14%.

    So S&P is currently down almost 20% from all time highs if you adjust for inflation.
     
    #67     Jul 13, 2023
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  8. mervyn

    mervyn

    lol, using your analogy, eps is overstated 28%, 14 from corporate sales, 14 from expenses. p/e is 25x and now is 31x, well into the bubble territory. are you scared more?
     
    #68     Jul 13, 2023
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

  10. For comparison the federal budget is 5.8 Trillion. 1 trillion is the debt interest... And soon it will be way more... Either hyperinflation soon or massive budget cuts or a lower combination of both. The US military is way too big anyways. Feelings tell me its social security spending that would be cut the most however.
     
    #70     Jul 14, 2023