If i wasnt long I would be confident it was the trade I should be in. Since I am in it I am not comfortable. For me no position is ever comfortable. The moment I get comfortable I normally should be exiting.
Iran will have a nuclear bomb in the next 3-6 months. Thats means Israel has to attack them, or manipulate us into doing it. Before June.
Stratfor (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091228_agenda_george_friedman) is suggesting that Israel/the US is probably going to attack Iran, given that effective sanctions will not work and that the US is not comfortable with a nuclear Iran. That's the big story I'd be looking at. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan make one big, contiguous theater, so a military conflict could turn into something really big. That's the event I'd be watching out for in 2010.
Gov't intervention is fading: Banks are selling, to return TARP funds. If you still want to be long, as least buy (a little) options to limit your risk.
was looking at an article over the weekend where foriegners are rapidly decreasing there purchases of new US bonds,this to me would indicate a stall in this rally as it severely handicaps the stimulus option,your article makes me wonder if military issues is one of the reasons they (foriegners)would purchase
The truth about this market in a microcosm is the stock price of Fannie and Freddie vs. their value based on their balance sheet.
If we knew that then we wouldn't be left holding the bag! The very nature of the unknown "when" is what gets us, isn't it?
Guess who wrote 'Coming War With Japan', with Meredith LeBard (1991). St Martins Press? What ever happened to that war in the 90s? George Friedman designs war games, that is what he thinks and breathes. He can't imagine Iran falling on its own, which is what is most likely to happen.