Some time ago a poster on this site said I was Mr Surf. I will now tell you I am not Mr Surf. However, if one goes and look at Mr Surf's last thread with 10 short YM, you will see exactly what happens when you let your opinions interfere with your trading. We all know Mr Surf was not actually placing live trades, but it is a very good example of what you should not do..and..clearly shows what can happen you if you are gullible and follow "squares" on a silly internet forum. If Mr Surf had taken his profits, on more than one occasion mind you, he would have shown the other side of trading.. clearly showing that.. "You will never go broke taking profits" Do not mind the clueless clowns, as all they will do is cost you money. Buy a big round CLOCK and stick it on top of your head with a small extension piece so that it really is "in your face"
IF, if, if... If indicates that you are speculating, watching in hindsight or dreaming. The fact that many people on ET think you are Surf means that you post the same kind of nonsense. Your "knowledge" or missing of "knowledge" is similar to Surf's. You are not Surf, your English writing is too bad. If I would have the numbers of powerball I would be millionaire.
i agree,this is why experts,gurus claiming probability of this or that in my trading is my edge are plain making fools of themselves right in the open.Probability based on some risk reward is not enough,given enough length of tested data result will look conversely to intended goal and in time produce variable similar to coin flip.That edge is gone,things are far more complicated these days and research methods step up as well. i read here on ET comments that strategies from C2 break down in around 6 months time.Of course they do,with better equipped participants and their methods markets become more efficient starving of profits those with methods less robust and the first thing to go is anything that is curve fitted. Gentle reader needs to be aware-one thing is to show what R:R is needed to be profitable and what win rate,quite another find a system that will produce this for longer period of time in real trading. I said a lot,but i didn't say anything really,because of sweat and frustration and real life costs involved in research beyond the crap.
The markets are very random and unpredictable, you might get it right sometimes but don't let this fool you. Non directional approach is a better way, hedging or options trading can work better in my experience, look into it.
The better way is the way you understand and master. All the rest is useless. I don't hedge, don't use options, and I trade directional. Why? Because what I do is the only thing that works for me. And I am more than satisfied with the results. It is difficult to give advice that makes sense to other people, as each person has different qualities, different personality, different IQ...
The Truth About Trading! Markets are computer driven, mostly There's very little margin for error Difficult for pros, impossible for amateurs There's 4 components required to be successful Competency, trading edge, personality/psychology, capitalisation. Trading edge can take many, many years to develop and needs to be back or forward tested. How many people have the time when working full time or supporting a family. Personality/psychology demands about 10 different attributes that very few people have. Not many have a spare $50-$100K cash lying around to start trading also. If any one of these are missing, there's a high probability you will fail. Choose your career wisely!