The truth about oil, gold, trading, the market, the olympics and the big dump

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, Aug 9, 2008.

  1. I will tell you the truth.

    This market started rallying when the olympics in China was announced. Then came all this development in Asia with the excuse of the Olympics.

    Everything went up all over Asia and then the overdevelopment began. The Olympics are coming, the olympics are coming!!! The Chinese demand more oil, more oil!!! More gold, more gold!!!

    Before the Olympics started, traders have already thought of the conclusion. The stock market and futures market all now taking big dumps and way off their highs.

    Its not over elitraders, not over yet. The grand finale will come in a few weeks. The timing of the Olympics is soooo perfect. In late August, the dumping will begin and wont reach a bottom until late October when everyone will be holding their guts wondering how they lost so much money. Oil will be cut in half, housing will dump down further and companies like AIG trading in the low teens. Starbucks trading in the high single digits and good ole Crapple cut in half.

    The recovery will begin, but it will go slowly and wonder back up in stages. Frustrating stages.

    When your IB account is dumped down to nil, that wont be the end of the frustration. As you call IB customer service, the guys behind the desk will laugh at your misfortune. Another one bites the dust. At least gas prices will be coming back down and finally you can cruise in an SUV and maybe just then GM might be a buy after it narrowly dodges bankruptcy.

    In the times to come, the "birds nest" stadium will become like all the rest of the Olympic stadiums. Broken down hulks. It will take decades for China to pay for all this overdevelopment and then comes a great recession in China the likes not seen since the never-ending recession in Japan. At least I will be able to go back to Asia and enjoy a good vacation with all the dumping that will make a good time cheap again.

    Now we have tanks rolling across Georgia with blood in the street and the so called Freedom Tower will never be built with overpaid NYC construction workers collecting lots of overtime while doing absolutely zip. What is next? What is next?

    Tell me what you have to say about all this, tell me now. Who cares, just buy DUG.
  2. Stosh


    That is what makes the markets so interesting: fear vs. greed. I imagine your worldwide recession scenerio will come to pass, it is just a question of when. I've been predicting it for quite a while. When it comes, those who were ready will profit handsomely and those who weren't will suffer severely, but the lesson of living within our means will be relearned.....hopefully by individuals, businesses, and governments. Then the cycle will begin again, to be repeated in a decade or two......because it is human nature. Stosh
  3. i see dead people
  4. I see dead people too. The most irrational people seem to make the best traders as they seem to understand and conceive exactly what is going on versus the educated and smart types who seem to bust up accounts more often then not.

    How irrational is it for this entire market, for the entire Chinese economy, for the oil market, for the gold be dictated by a two week athletic event???

    Does anyone truly see a vibrant market after the Olympics? I expect one final huge curtain closing DUMP right after the games are over where finally the last bulls will be utterly and completely flushed.
  5. bl33p


    Umm as China is flush with cash how is it going to take them decades to pay for anything?

    Their main problem seems to be the inability to use that cash in a productive fashion. Investing in US govt bonds is something for developed countries to park their pension money, not the way for a developing economy to allocate their resources.
  6. The Bird Nest costs $300-400M. I remember that the latest Batman and Spiderman cost similiar amt to produce. Can we tell for sure that it is not a better investment than the movies???

    The Beijing Olympic openning ceremony is a huge success. There is news frm London saying that they feel huge pressure as they will host the next Game and wonder how they can produce a better ceremony.

    Japan used to face solvency issues for the banks. But China is estimated to hv assets of ~$14T ($10-11T are held by the government or the state enterprises). They hv enough money to sail thru future storms.

    The real problem with China is not that they don't hv enough money. But rather that very little amt rest in the hands of ordinary citizens. Tertiary industry can never develop in this way as the only big spenders are the big corporations and the government.

    But it is also true to say that over-investment is serious. The economy is really controlled by a very elite group of ppl and they may not allcoate capital in the most efficient way. But given current strong balance sheet going bankrupt is hard to perceive.
  7. Ever noticed that threads headed the "truth about" something heralds another big bunch of bullsh*t. The colorful melodrama and fantasy of the thread opener would make anyone think that ET people are a collection of cranks.

    Trading is a serious business; its for those who are rational, logical and dedicated. For anyone else get savvy, stop jerking off and get down to nailing precisely just how to pull money from the market as a daily habit. :cool:
  8. Do you seriously think they do it for the ROI? It's to keep the American economy going. In fact, the reason FNM and FMA were bailed out because foreigners held the majority of the bonds, and they were going to stop investing in US assets if they lost the value in those bonds.
  9. I heard the sky is blue because the government is holding all of our water in a giant cylinder over us and is ready to break and drown the entire world! Build a shiP!

    /swan dive off a building please
  10. Stosh


    I've lived through 3+ wars and numerous booms and busts. I re-read the original post, and don't find it ridiculous at all. He could be right......probably not....but could be. He is just as likely to be right as the cheerleaders who live in denial. America is becoming a socialist state and we are living off the work of previous generations and the credit of future generations. The result may be lengthy stagnation or it may be precipitous as per the original post.......or the American voters may wake up before it is too late....which is much less likely. Stosh
    #10     Aug 10, 2008